SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP32   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 12, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 24 points to 75.1 this   
   week, and average daily solar flux was down over 12 points to 104.3.   
   Big events this week were solar flares, with a substantial   
   geomagnetic upset on Friday and Saturday, August 5 and 6, when the   
   planetary A index was 49 and 31.  The largest solar flare of the   
   current sunspot cycle, an X7 flare, occurred at 0805z on August 9,   
   emerging from sunspot group 1263. This does not appear to be   
   earth-directed.   
       
   The latest forecast from NOAA has solar flux at 85 on August 12-13,   
   at 90 on August 14-16, 95 on August 17-18, 98 on August 19-20, 100   
   on August 21, then 105 on August 22-30.  Planetary A index is   
   expected to be 5 on August 12-14, then 15, 18, 12, 5, 8, 5, 12 and 8   
   on August 15-22, 5 on August 23-25, and 15, 10, 8, 5 and 5 on August   
   26-30.   
       
   Reviewing recent sunspot activity, on August 4 there were four   
   sunspot groups visible, 1260, 1261, 1263 and 1266.  Total area   
   covered by sunspots was 1380 millionths of a solar hemisphere, the   
   largest coverage since March 8, 2011.   
       
   On August 5 new sunspot group 1267 appeared, and on August 6 groups   
   1260 and 1266 disappeared, and new group 1268 arrived.  1268   
   disappeared and 1266 reappeared on August 7, and on August 8, 1261   
   was gone and 1268 emerged again.  1268 then vanished again on August   
   9.  On August 10 sunspot group 1267 was gone, and 1268 came back.   
   On August 11 sunspot group 1263 was gone, and new groups 1269 and   
   1270 appeared.   
       
   Kent Doucey, N0IRM of Galena, Missouri was on 20 meter SSB on August   
   3, and at 0239z worked Victor, E51CG on Rarotonga.  Signals were   
   strong, so they switched to 10 meters and connected again, this time   
   with weaker but quite readable signals, at a distance of about 5,900   
   miles.  If you look up both of these stations at QRZ.com, you'll see   
   some nice photos of their antennas.   
       
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on August   
   6: "We had some nice sporadic E on Wednesday the August 3 evening   
   here with 6M open to W9/0.  I very briefly worked WA2BEV in Butler,   
   PA on 10M only about 190 miles away via Es and logged a couple of MI   
   stations there, possibly the result of the flares.  Conditions on   
   the 11th (this is confusing, as the email was sent August 6) were   
   decent with very good prop to VK and LP into ZS on 20M around 12Z.   
   I then went up to 15 to find ST0R on CW about S4 here and not   
   workable thru the EU/JA pile up (in 15 minutes they worked no NA   
   stations).  Returning after 15Z, I luckily found their QSX frequency   
   and was the next QSO with ST0R signal up to about S6.  I then tried   
   12M and worked PA1CC about S5 and CS2W on CW.  A listen on 10M   
   yielded hearing an I-ZERO beacon an hearing IW0 working someone not   
   audible, but CQs yielded no QSOs.  Signals on 15M in the 15Z hour   
   were good up to LY and SM, but nothing heard from Russia.   
        
   Regarding W7FA, Vince's comments about solar flare/storm enhancement   
   of signals, this is definitely true even sometimes over polar paths.   
   But another factor, time of day, would explain a big difference in   
   signal strength; his SSB QSO with ST0R in the 23Z hour was at a time   
   when signals would be expected to be much weaker than approaching   
   west coast sunset around 02Z".   
       
   Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio is excited about six meters.   
   He sent this: "HUGE 6m Es opening from central Ohio to New England   
   and the Maritimes this Sunday morning (August 7) around noon, with   
   signals the strongest I've heard them all season.  Mick, W1JJ with   
   his box 9 el Yagis on a cell phone tower took my S-meter to   
   unparalleled heights ... 40 dB over!  And VE1SKY, Roger, and I had   
   what seemed like a one hour arm chair rag chew on a variety of   
   topics, while the S meter rolled between 20 over and S7.  Lots more   
   folks getting into MS with the WSJT software, as a way to use 6m in   
   the 'off-season.'  Then worked a couple of 59+ sigs from the NYC   
   area which is very short Es, indicative of intense sporadic E   
   ionization.  I even heard stations to my west while beaming ENE.  As   
   I rotated the 5 el Yagi west they dropped out, so I was hearing S3-4   
   sigs from behind me also bouncing off the same sporadic E cloud   
   (backscatter) that was propagating sigs so well from New England.   
   Incredible!   
       
   Two days earlier, on Friday night between 6-7:30 pm, I made my first   
   AU(aurora) QSO ever on 6m, and then 23 more, into MI, ON, WI, MN,   
   IL, IN, IA, PA, MD, VA, KY, TN, MD and OH.  Strangest of all the   
   buzz-saw sounding CW notes was KA1VHF, Steve, located a mere 20 mi   
   west of me.  We've worked a few times but this was the first time   
   via AU!  Amazing to hear a local coming in via AU!   
       
   And two days before that, on Wed around 1430z I added G8BCG and   
   G4RRA plus CU2JT to the grid square collection for this season.   
       
   And the previous Sunday night I even checked into the LoneStar Net   
   in TX, with NC W5HNK and the boys all with 5-9 sigs rag chewing via   
   their groundwave but also picking up check ins from Ohio!   
       
   So what a week it was!  DX, Es the loudest of the season, and AU!   
   6m ain't dead yet!"   
       
   Thanks, Robert!   
       
   Earth is currently moving through debris from the comet   
   Swift-Tuttle, which gives us the Perseid meteor shower, which should   
   peak August 12-13.   
       
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10 were 81, 94, 85, 89, 80, 54,   
   and 43, with a mean of 75.1. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 109.4, 110,   
   105.4, 101.5, 97.5, and 90.3, with a mean of 104.3.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 49, 31, 7, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of   
   16.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 32, 14, 6, 8, 5, and   
   8, with a mean of 10.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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