SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP25   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25  ARLP025   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 24, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Over the past week (June 16-22) the average daily sunspot number   
   rose nearly 20 points to 55, and average daily solar flux readings   
   increased by nearly 9 points to 98.6.  All geomagnetic indices   
   declined slightly.  These increases or decreases are relative to the   
   previous seven days, before June 16.   
      
   For the past month we've been looking nervously toward ARRL Field   
   Day, because a forecast from NOAA and USAF showed possibly unsettled   
   geomagnetic conditions on Friday, June 24, and continuing through   
   Field Day weekend.   
      
   The forecast has evolved from troubling to frightening, and back   
   again. Early in June the predicted planetary A index for June 24-26   
   was 18, 18 and 15. Then on June 7 it changed to 15, 15, and 10, a   
   little better. Then a week later things looked even more promising   
   on June 14 at 15, 10 and 5. But on June 17 it was revised upward, to   
   30, 15 and 5. A planetary A index of 30 indicates a geomagnetic   
   storm.   
      
   The next day on June 18 the forecast shifted to 25, 18 and 8, and on   
   June 19 it changed again to 25, 18 and 10. June 20 saw a slight   
   change to 25, 18 and 8 again, then June 21 it shifted to 15, 40 and   
   25.  An A index of 40 on the first day of Field Day sounds ominous.   
   Then June 22 it changed again to 30, 10 and 10, and now the June 23   
   prediction for June 24-26 shows a planetary A index of 30, 18 and   
   12.   
      
   Basically we would love to see the A index as low as possible, five   
   or less would be wonderful.  The latest news is that the solar wind   
   from a Coronal Mass Ejection which occurred on the solstice is   
   moving slower than originally thought, which means a weaker effect   
   here on Earth.  A planetary K index of 5 is expected when the storm   
   arrives, now predicted at 0700z on June 24, which is 35 hours before   
   the start of Field Day, 1800z on June 25.   
      
   At 0640z on June 23, the Australian IPS Radio and Space Services   
   released a bulletin stating that increased geomagnetic activity is   
   expected on Jun4 23-24 due to the coronal mass ejection, but that   
   the effect on June 23 is expected to be mild, with a small chance of   
   isolated storm periods.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts active conditions June 24,   
   unsettled to active on June 25, quiet to unsettled June 26-27, and   
   quiet on June 28-30.   
      
   The last forecast before Field Day should be on Friday, June 24,   
   released after 2100z. Check   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and also   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt for the latest K   
   indices.  The similar   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt shows you solar   
   flux, sunspot number, and other data such as sunspot area.   
      
   The most recent forecast from USAF and NOAA has solar flux at 95 on   
   June 24-25, 90 on June 26-30, 85 on July 1, and 95, 93 and 90 on   
   July 2-4  Predicted planetary A index for June 24-26 is 30, 18, and   
   12, 8 on June 27-28, and 5 on Jun 29 through July 1.   
      
   Ron Zond, K3MIY of Clarion, Pennsylvania found an interesting   
   article in an old QST from a half century ago.  John Chambers, W6NLZ   
   published "After Sunspots - What?" on pages 66-67 in the March 1960   
   QST.  I was about to dig out that old issue when I remembered that   
   ARRL members can access an archive of QST magazines running from   
   December 1915 to December 2007 at   
   http://www.arrl.org/arrl-periodicals-archive-search.  I just   
   searched on Name: Chambers Call: W6NLZ Year: 1960 and went right to   
   it.   
      
   This article was written just after the peak of Cycle 19 (which was   
   huge!) and in it the author speculates on what a future with little   
   or no sunspots might hold.   
      
   I thought W6NLZ seemed like a familiar call from my childhood, and   
   he was known back then for his VHF records establishing contact with   
   KH6UK.  Check out   
   http://wy6k.com/Shack%20Photos/1961/Great%20Shack%20Photos%20196   
   %20Page%202.htm   
   for photos of both of them.   
      
   Thanks to Howard Lester, N7SO of Schuylerville, New York, K3CWF and   
   a number of others who sent in this article from Sky & Telescope   
   about disappearing sunspots:   
   http://www.skyandtelescope.com/community/skyblog/newsblog/123844859.html.   
   Howard notes that there is no mention of the dissenting view.   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in his   
   observations on recent conditions: "Conditions have seemed down from   
   2-3 weeks ago, but there has been a decent amount of sporadic-E as   
   we near the peak of the season which seems to me to be right around   
   July 1 on average. Late into the evening openings to EU on 15 meters   
   and higher have been much rarer, but there was some good propagation   
   reported in the All Asia CW contest by others.   
      
   "Around 0100Z Sunday on 15 phone, I worked Jim, E51JD in Rarotonga,   
   South Cook with a S9 signal. He was only running 100W to a small low   
   tribander.   
      
   "Saturday June 18, I was active in the WV QSO party and the   
   sporadic-E continued to abound again this year as it did in 2010.   
   Not much was happening right at the 1600Z start, but by 1700Z skip   
   on 20 phone was short enough to work the other side of WV, southern   
   VA, and many in NC. I even worked a guy in Weaverville, NC in the   
   Smokies where I had stopped for breakfast a day ago - small world!   
   There were plenty of OH and KY stations for a while, then the band   
   opened to the northeast and even as close as DE about 140 miles from   
   here!  I managed to work all states except AK and VT (propagation   
   and QSO total to neighboring NH was good) in a few hours. 10M was   
   not quite good enough to spend much time there while I was able to   
   operate, but at 0100Z there was double hop Es to CA, NV, and AZ.   
      
   "On Friday June 17 around 2200Z, 6 meters was open to FM5AA, FM5AN,   
   V44KAI, and FG5FR.   
      
   "There were about the normal amount of Es on 6 meters during the   
   June VHF contest with C6, VP9, a few double hop stations in the   
   Rockies and lots of 4s, 5s and southern 0s logged."   
      
   Lawrence, GJ3RAX of the Isle of Jersey observes: "I have had some   
   comments from Nick VE3OWV. I have known him for a long time as we   
   were at university together in England in the early 60s. He has also   
   noticed that, although the sunspots have been increasing recently,   
   the propagation has not improved in the way it did at a similar   
   stage of previous cycles. We have not been able to get back to our   
   skeds on 17 that we used to keep so email has had to do instead. He   
   did say that he has been having QSOs to Europe on 17 at about 11 to   
   12 pm my time. Normally I only look on the bands during the   
   afternoons so I will start checking them again at that time. I used   
   to enjoy late night QSOs when I was younger but my stamina is now   
   rather less than it used to be!"   
      
   Check out K9LA, Carl Luetzelschwab's Propagation column on pages   
   16-19 in the July 2011 issue of Worldradio, which you can download   
   for free at http://worldradiomagazine.com/. He talks about signal   
   comparisons on the air in the 1980s, and how to use some new tools   
   such as internet connected remote receivers and a reverse beacon   
   network for similar comparisons today.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22 were 62, 65, 67, 47, 43, 57,   
   and 44, with a mean of 55. 10.7 cm flux was 103.3, 104.3, 99.2,   
   99.1, 96.4, 95.1, and 92.9, with a mean of 98.6. Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 4, 11, 4, 4, 7, 10, and 12, with a mean of 7.4.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 8, 4, 3, 7, 8, and 7, with   
   a mean of 5.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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