SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024   
   ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP24   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 17, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP024   
   ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The average daily sunspot number for the past week declined by more   
   than half, nearly 52 points to 35.1, when compared to the previous   
   week.  Average daily solar flux declined nearly 12 points to 90.1.   
   Note that from Wednesday (the last day for the data reported at the   
   end of this bulletin) to Thursday of this week the solar flux went   
   from 101.5 to 103.3 and the sunspot number rose from 48 to 62.   
      
   NOAA and the USAF predict rising solar flux for the near term, with   
   solar flux at 105 on June 17-20, to 110 on June 21-23, 105 on June   
   24-26 then dipping below 100 after June 28.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for ARRL Field Day weekend is 105 on June   
   24-26.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index for June 17-25 is 10, 8, 5, 8, 8, 5, 18,   
   15 and 10, followed by 5 on each day through the end of June.  It   
   seems that a recurring coronal hole may disturb our Earth's   
   geomagnetic field, with the maximum effect on June 23, two days   
   before Field Day, but geomagnetic conditions should be very quiet by   
   Sunday, June 26.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for June   
   17-18, quiet to unsettled June 19, active conditions June 20, and   
   unsettled conditions June 22-23.  For some reason they don't offer a   
   prediction for June 21.   
      
   Big news this week was the report issued from a meeting of the Solar   
   Physics Division of American Astronomical Society at New Mexico   
   State University in Las Cruces predicting another Maunder Minimum -   
   many decades with hardly any sunspots.  There seems to be a   
   convergence of several lines of thought which all predict this, but   
   fortunately there are dissenting experts.   
      
   Here is the text of the release:   
      
   http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/SPD_so   
   ar_cycle_releas   
   e.txt   
      
   This contains text and images:   
      
   http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/   
      
   The web site for the conference:   
      
   http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/   
      
   Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center   
   questions this hypothesis of disappearing sunspots.  You can read   
   his notes here:   
      
   https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srci   
   =0B88iFXWgVKt-N   
   zU0Y2I3M2QtNGNkNS00ZTcyLWIxN2UtOWEwMzNmOTMzOTAx&hl=en_US&pli=1   
      
   Or if that doesn't work for you, try this:   
      
   http://snurl.com/5qzxf   
      
   A slideshow accompanies the notes:   
      
   http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/why-there-is-no-evidence-for-a-   
   ew-maunder-mini   
   mum-8318340   
      
   Here are several articles on related subjects, the first two   
   contributed by Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI:   
      
   http://esciencenews.com/articles/2011/06/14/new.insights.how.sol   
   r.minimums.affe   
   ct.earth   
      
   http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-06-scientists-magnetic-ropes-solar-storms.html   
      
   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/solar-minimum-climate/   
      
   Peter Laws, N5UWY of Norman, Oklahoma wrote: "On the morning of   
   Memorial Day, May 30, I was alerted to a potential opening on the 2   
   meter band. I went to the radio room and tuned around. Sure enough -   
   a W8! I worked W8BYA in EN70 about 1230 km from me in EM15.  My   
   question is this: Was that a Tropospheric Ducting event or was it   
   sporadic-E?  It seems to me to be long for Tropo but I don't really   
   know the upper end for Tropo over land.  Is there some rule of thumb   
   that operators can use to try to determine which mode made the   
   contact possible?   
      
   "As exciting to me as 2 meter DX contacts are, W8BYA was the only   
   station I heard on the band!!"   
      
   My suspicion is that the mode was sporadic-E, but I don't know.   
   Maybe some experienced VHF ops can lend an opinion on this.   
      
   The July 2011 issue of QST has an informative article by Joel   
   Hallas, W1ZR on pages 37-38 titled, "Solar Indices - What do they   
   Mean?"  In the article Joel explains solar flux, sunspot numbers, A   
   index and K index, and what they mean for the radio amateur.  The   
   article also gives a nice plug for this bulletin.   
      
   Lawrence, GJ3RAX from the Isle of Jersey writes: "Last Friday I had   
   a phone call from GJ3YHU. That is not unusual as he lives about a   
   mile from me. This time he was down in Meze in the south of France   
   where he spends time regularly. He said that he had been hearing   
   signals on 10 meters and wanted to see if there was a path between   
   us. I was doubtful that it would be possible as my typical   
   sporadic-E QSOs are usually to the south of Spain, Gibraltar and   
   North Africa. The south of France would probably be too close. We   
   chose a frequency and tried, resulting in a QSO at 5/9 each way.   
   That lasted for nearly 5 minutes before fading out.   
      
   "His equipment was an IC-7000 to a mobile whip. I was using an   
   IC-756-Pro2 to a Cushcraft R5 which is mounted 10 feet above the   
   ground here. Using Google Earth I estimated the distance as 485   
   miles.   
      
   "By the time I get to replace my broken beam for 6 m the sporadic-E   
   season will be over but I should be back on that band and the higher   
   VHF bands later in the year."   
      
   Thanks, Lawrence!   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15 were 46, 35, 37, 16, 16, 48,   
   and 48, with a mean of 35.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.5, 86.7, 84.5,   
   84.6, 86.6, 99.3, and 101.5, with a mean of 90.1. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, 7, and 7, with a mean of   
   8.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 7, 10, 5, 6, 7, and 9,   
   with a mean of 7.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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