SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP23   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 10, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Although higher early in the reporting week, average daily sunspot   
   numbers declined over four points to 85.7 and the average of daily   
   solar flux numbers was down a point and a half to 101.6, when   
   compared to the previous week, May 26 to June 1.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 88 on June 10-13, then 86,   
   84, 84, 88, 95, on June 14-18, then 92 on June 19-21, 95 and 100 on   
   June 22-23 and 110 on June 24-26.  Solar flux then rises to a peak   
   of 115 on June 28.  Predicted planetary A index is 25, 12, 8 and 8   
   on June 10-13, then 5 on June 14-22, then peaking at 15 on June   
   24-25.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled to active conditions   
   June 10, unsettled June 11, quiet to unsettled June 12-13, unsettled   
   June 14, quiet to unsettled June 15, and quiet conditions June 16.   
      
   On June 3 there were 8 sunspot groups facing Earth, numbered   
   consecutively 1225-1232. Then on June 5, groups 1225, 1229, 1230 and   
   1231 disappeared, and new group 1233 emerged. On June 7 1233   
   disappeared, and on June 9 1226 left us and new group 1234 appeared.   
      
   Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI sent a link to some fantastic HD videos of   
   solar eruptions.  Go to   
   http://www.thesuntoday.org/current-observations/a-spectacular-ev   
   nt-a-filamentpr   
   ominence-eruption-to-blow-your-socks-off/ .   
      
   If you check page 14 on the report   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1861.pdf and compare it with   
   page 15 on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1866.pdf you can   
   see that some reported and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers have   
   changed over the last month.  The smoothed sunspot numbers for   
   December 2010 through November 2011 have each gone down one or two   
   points.  The numbers are smoothed over a year, so the current month   
   would average actual data that has already been measured for about   
   the past six months with about six months of data predicted into the   
   future.   
      
   Bob Cashdollar, NR8U of Newark, Ohio reports, "On June 4 at 0208z   
   checked 10M for activity for the 10-X Open Season Contest. When I   
   fired up the rig and computer, I landed right on ZL3TE working   
   another ZL on PSK31 on 28.120 MHz. He was very strong and I watched   
   the QSO on the waterfall. When he finished with the ZL QSO I called   
   him and to my surprise he came right back and we exchanged info.  I   
   thought this contest was going to be really easy. Boy, was I   
   mistaken! I had a lot of trouble seeing and working anybody   
   stateside. Checked the band this morning (June 4) around 1400z and   
   most stations were not workable, with a lot of scattering of the   
   other stations transmissions. Maybe I should go up to Bob W3HKK that   
   you mentioned in your last column; he just lives about 25 miles NW   
   of me. Maybe he has better propagation!"   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas reports, "I worked Dave, VP5/W5CW on 6M   
   SSB on June 1 at 0018z. Dave worked many across the mid USA on   
   double hop Es the afternoon of May 31. I was operating portable   
   using a 2 el Yagi."   
      
   Charlie Calhoun, K5TTT of Owasso, Oklahoma (EM26ch) wrote, "I had   
   something unexpected happen during the Es openings this week on 6m.   
   On two consecutive days I worked two different stations in totally   
   different directions, less than 24 hours from exactly one year   
   prior.  On 6/1/2010, I worked XE2NS, DL95 at 0247z, then on 6/1/2011   
   I worked Alfonso again at 0323z.  I thought that was pretty neat   
   until the next day when I worked K0PP, DN36 at 0322z and noticed him   
   in my log from 0305z, 6/3/2010."   
      
   Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP022 (see   
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP022/2011) contained a   
   message from Rudy Hanau, K2EVY of Rye Brook, New York about some 20   
   meter backscatter propagation he experienced. The report didn't   
   mention this, but the propagation was observed around 0300z on May   
   29. I passed this on to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, who had the   
   following comments for Rudy:   
      
   "I looked at the Boulder ionosonde data (kind of along your path to   
   K6ZA) for a couple days before and after May 29. The data show a   
   depletion (roughly 33%) of F2 region electrons on May 28 and May 29,   
   undoubtedly due to the spike in the A index beginning on May 27 and   
   continuing through May 30. I'm sure this would show up in other mid   
   latitude ionosondes. This is likely the reason the 'normal' path   
   wasn't there.   
      
   "Next I looked at Pt Arguello (Vandenberg AFB, Southern California)   
   ionograms from 0215-0300 UTC on May 29. They show good sporadic-E   
   traces that could easily support 14 MHz. The Pt Arguello ionosonde   
   is about 230 miles SSE of K6ZA, so it is as good an indicator as   
   anything that Es was occurring in the vicinity of K6ZA.   
      
   "Thus this cursory look says your unusual path might have been due   
   to an Es cloud. Kind of makes sense since we're in the Es season.   
   And it might explain K6ZA's follow-on QSO with the Nevada guy.   
      
   "I think this is about as far as I can take it without wildly waving   
   my arms."   
      
   Rudy responded, "I was not aware that sporadic-E effects were   
   noticeable all the way down to 20 meters."  Carl responded, "I agree   
   that the 'normal' refraction mechanism is likely out of the picture   
   on 20m as the high sporadic-E electron density is probably not thick   
   enough vertically for refraction on 14 MHz.   
      
   "I wasn't thinking refraction - I should have been more explicit. I   
   considered reflection and scatter from the sporadic-E cloud.   
      
   "As for conductivity, the highest electron density seen in the Pt   
   Arguello ionograms (8 MHz) translates to a conductivity of around   
   .00025 S/m on 14 MHz. Poor ground has a conductivity of .002 S/m, so   
   we're an order of magnitude less than poor ground. Regardless, some   
   reflection could occur on 20m."   
      
   Thanks, Carl!   
      
   And last, Bob Paglee, who is probably either WA7CFP or KB2ITO (he   
   didn't say) of Moorestown, New Jersey, sent a note after reading our   
   item in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP021 about the geophysical   
   announcements on WWV ending, and thought WWV was being shut down,   
   which it is not.  Bob can rest easy.  WWV is not going away.  The   
   solar flux and geomagnetic indices that are updated every three   
   hours and currently are broadcast via voice at 18 minutes after each   
   hour are ending.  The same reports will still be available on the   
   internet at:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt   
      
   That is the text of the message that is currently read on WWV.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8 were 118, 122, 116, 74, 67, 58   
   and 45, with a mean of 85.7. 10.7 cm flux was 111.6, 107.1, 102.8,   
   102.9, 100.2, 96.4 and 90.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 8, 4, 15, 27, 7, 9, and 14, with a mean of   
   12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 3, 11, 20, 5, 8, and 9,   
   with a mean of 8.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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