SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022   
   ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP22   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22  ARLP022   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 3, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP022   
   ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity is up sharply this week, with the average daily   
   sunspot number increasing over 55 points to 89.9.  Average solar   
   flux rose nearly 20 points to 103.1.   
      
   The latest forecast shows solar flux at 115 on June 3, 110 on June   
   4-6, 105 on June 7-8, 100 on June 9-14, rising to 105 on June 15 and   
   110 on June 16-26.  Planetary A index is predicted to be 12, 20, 15   
   and 10 on June 3-6, 5 on June 7-10, 8 on June 11-13 and 5 on June   
   14-21.  The next period of high geomagnetic activity is projected   
   for Jun 22-27, at 12, 22, 18, 18, 15 and 8. Note that ARRL Field Day   
   for 2011 is June 25-26, which should be just after the predicted   
   peak in geomagnetic activity, currently predicted for June 23.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague sees unsettled to active conditions   
   June 3-4, unsettled June 5, quiet conditions June 6-7, and quiet to   
   unsettled June 8-9.   
      
   With the passing of May, we can look at some moving averages of   
   sunspot numbers.   
      
   74.4 was the average daily sunspot number for the latest 3-month   
   period, March through May, centered on April.  The three month   
   moving averages centered on May 2010 through April 2011 were 16.4,   
   20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33, 35.6, 31, 30.1, 35.3, 55.7, 72.3 and 74.4.   
      
   The average sunspot number for May was 61.5, down somewhat from   
   March and April.  The monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for   
   January through May 2011 were 32.3, 53.5, 81.1, 80.8 and 61.5.   
      
   Currently there are eight sunspot groups visible.  You can see a   
   daily sunspot update at,   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/SRS.html.   
      
   Check   
   http://www.space.com/11858-dark-sunspots-origins-explained.html for   
   an article titled "Mysterious Origins of Dark Sunspots Explained."   
   The journal Science has an abstract for the article mentioned in the   
   Dark Sunspots piece at,   
   http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/06/01/science.1206429.   
   Often with an account at your local library you can log in and read   
   the full text of the article.   
      
   Another article similar to the "Dark Sunspots" article is on the   
   http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/4378/century-old-sunspot-problem-solved   
   site.   
      
   Don Tucker, W7WLL who lives in Yachats (pronounced YAH-HOTS) on the   
   Oregon coast, writes "The bands, particularly 20, have been so hot   
   that I worked WAC and probably could'a worked DXCC in one 24 hour   
   period if I'd tried!!  Antennas, antennas, antennas. Can't hear 'em,   
   can't work 'em."   
      
   Check out Don's station and antennas at http://www.qrz.com/db/w7wll.   
      
   Bob Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio reminds us of the upcoming ARRL   
   June VHF QSO Party, which runs from 1800 UTC June 11 through 0259   
   UTC June 13.  See http://www.arrl.org/june-vhf-qso-party for   
   details.  Bob writes - concerning 6 meters - "My own observation   
   over 2010 and 2011 is that during last year's Es season there were   
   many more broad strong openings 1000 miles out, and therefore more   
   double/triple hop openings than I've heard this year. In 2011, I   
   often hear a handful of signals, often up and down into the noise,   
   and that's it. How much of this is based on antenna height, and very   
   low angle of radiation I have no idea. But it just seems like 6   
   meters has been a far tougher Es band this year."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas writes: "On Sunday May 22, 6   
   meters opened via multi-hop Es to the Caribbean most of the day. I   
   worked FG5FR at 1928 UTC on 50.105 MHz. Franz was a solid 559 on my   
   dipole. Heard numerous KP4s, 9Y4D and P43A. FJ/OS1T was on earlier   
   and gave many a new country on 6M."   
      
   Later Jon wrote: "I heard K0ZN EM28 working K0SBV DM42 on May 29.   
   K0ZN is in DeSoto, about 15 miles from Lawrence."   
      
   Kent Doucy, N0IRM of Galena, Missouri had a nice 15 meter opening.   
   He writes, "At 0454 UTC on May 31, 2011 I found 5W1SA from Samoa   
   calling CQ on 21.020 with a great 579 signal. A little later at 0528   
   UTC I was also able to work Brad FO/N6JA on Marquesas Island on   
   21.018, he was a little harder copy with a 519 signal. Nothing else   
   was heard after that but it was a nice short lived late 15 meter   
   opening to the Midwest." See Kent's antennas at   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/n0irm .   
      
   Rudy Hanau, K2EVY of Rye, New York had some interesting comments   
   regarding backscatter:  "Most of us have run into HF backscatter at   
   one time or another.  In my experience the other station and I find   
   ourselves pointing our beams at some common point out of line with   
   the direct path between us.   
      
   "However, this incident was a bit different. On May 29 the SFI was   
   101 and the A index was 36. Not your most common set of conditions   
   and, I suspect the geomagnetic activity associated with the high A   
   is involved. Twenty meters was very sparsely populated and K6ZA's S9   
   signal stood out. My QTH is Rye Brook, NY (FN31) and Barry is in   
   Walnut Grove, CA (CM87). His bearing should have been 280 degrees,   
   just a bit north of West for me, and indeed it was. He was just   
   finishing another QSO and I called him. He told me he had been   
   working KL7 and was looking North! I swung North and lost him. He   
   looked East and lost me. We were both S9 or better when our antennas   
   were about 90 degrees to one another.  We scratched our heads and   
   looked every which way for another path but there was none.   
      
   "I signed after about 30 minutes and Barry went on to work another   
   station (more about that later). When working backscatter we usually   
   think of some far off reflecting area such as aurora over Alaska or   
   the pole.  In mulling this contact over the only explanation I can   
   offer is that the reflecting area was very near Walnut Grove and was   
   omnidirectional, like a vertical.  If it was 50 or 100 miles north   
   of Barry it would be indistinguishable from Barry's QTH for me   
   whereas Barry would have to point north to see it.   
      
   "Barry described his next contact as follows: 'After our QSO I was   
   called by a Laughlin, Nevada station SE of me, also same scenario.   
   He was seeing me at normal NW direction. He was strongest to the   
   North. Then, during the 30 min contact, I found I could move the   
   beam toward the east with no change in strength and then he began to   
   peak more toward him and less to the North. By the end, he was 40   
   over at SE, and no propagation to the north at all."'   
      
   There is a slightly revised solar cycle prediction from NASA at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. This month it says   
   "Three consecutive months with average daily sunspot numbers above   
   40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14   
   maximum in 1907." Last month it said "Two consecutive months with   
   average daily sunspot numbers in the 50s has raised the predicted   
   maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1 were 40, 65, 91, 89, 105,   
   132, and 107, with a mean of 89.9. 10.7 cm flux was 82.7, 89.9, 101,   
   110.8, 111.9, 112, and 113.6, with a mean of 103.1. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 7, 11, 40, 32, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean   
   of 17.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 7, 32, 17, 7, 10,   
   and 9, with a mean of 12.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)