TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 552.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 29046424   
   PID: Synchronet 3.20a-Win32 master/777fb6d8b Jun 13 2023 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.20-Win32 master/777fb6d8b Jun 13 2023 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026   
   ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP26   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 30, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP026   
   ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:   
      
   "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly   
   facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd   
   the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,   
   observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye   
   through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are   
   likely in the days ahead."   
      
   See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.   
      
   Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the   
   exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on   
   Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which   
   follows.   
      
   There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,   
   another on June 26 and another on June 27.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily   
   solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.   
      
   This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track   
   together.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July   
   6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,   
   175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140   
   and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on   
   August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may   
   continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July   
   2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a   
   stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8   
   on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through   
   August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30   
   again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are   
   predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following   
   the July 12-13 prediction.   
      
   The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the   
   USAF space weather group.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.   
      
   "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most   
   significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It   
   happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the   
   solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the   
   Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .   
      
   "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two   
   days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.   
      
   "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an   
   increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.   
   Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of   
   20 June.   
      
   "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above   
   the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist   
   the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the   
   size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.   
      
   "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to   
   beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.   
      
   "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.   
      
   "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,   
   so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of   
   course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect   
   throughout the whole HF spectrum."   
      
   Pat, W5THT wrote:   
      
   "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast   
   since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old   
   observation.   
      
   "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to   
   now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6   
   meter propagation to Europe.   
      
   "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX   
   propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana.  This is not   
   the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV   
   weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure   
   that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions   
   confirmed?   
      
   "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather   
   fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps   
   someone younger than me has already done the research."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:   
      
   "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!   
      
   "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday   
   afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil   
   on 6 meters from North America during the summer.   
      
   "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on   
   radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied   
   PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half   
   an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked   
   CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in   
   our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues   
   Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."   
      
   An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI   
      
   Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ   
      
   "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:   
      
   https://bit.ly/46rC3YU   
      
   Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article   
   comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the   
   infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC   
      
   Another Solar Cycle article:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y   
      
   Yet another Carrington Event article:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o   
      
   Article about Solar max:   
      
   https://bit.ly/44jM5tP   
      
   A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:   
      
   https://bit.ly/445vtWf   
      
   Flares and how they are measured:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3prvtRs   
      
   A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:   
      
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us   
   which mode you were operating.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:   
      
   https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,   
   180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,   
   169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with   
   a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and   
   8, with a mean of 9.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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