TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 500.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28e8b215   
   PID: Synchronet 3.20a-Win32 master/1c63f4d2c May 24 2023 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.20-Win32 master/1c63f4d2c May 24 2023 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP23   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 9, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot   
   number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux   
   from 155.3 to 166.8.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average   
   middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170   
   on June 23-25 and July 20-21.   
      
   The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160   
   and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June   
   21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160   
   on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then   
   140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on   
   June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,   
   then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,   
   and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July   
   11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.   
      
   In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation   
   observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also   
   into Mexico at a similar distance.   
      
   Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in   
   North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and   
   Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:   
      
   "In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly   
   elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.   
   This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has   
   resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest   
   usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,   
   however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which   
   manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of   
   the longer shortwave bands.   
      
   "Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach   
   Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind   
   speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's   
   magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.   
      
   "The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,   
   whose season is approaching its peak.   
      
   "Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared   
   quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the   
   ionograms.   
      
   "As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as   
   well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere   
   of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the   
   improvement when Summer ends there -  which fortunately will be much   
   earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."   
      
   While searching for something else, I ran across this article from   
   the RSGB:   
      
   http://bit.ly/45TjWuA   
      
   Mike, W9NY wrote:   
      
   "Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first   
   licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,   
   and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.   
      
   "I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford   
   who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering   
   what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal   
   propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to   
   atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"   
      
   I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of   
   sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.   
      
   It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest   
   propagation bulletin.   
      
   The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for   
   analysis and custom graphing.   
      
   http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp   
      
   A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us   
   which mode you were operating.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:   
      
   https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,   
   151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,   
   162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a   
   mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,   
   with a mean of 8.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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