TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 476.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28d69260   
   PID: Synchronet 3.20a-Win32 master/1c63f4d2c May 24 2023 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.20-Win32 master/1c63f4d2c May 24 2023 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021   
   ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP21   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 26, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP021   
   ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this   
   week.  Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while   
   average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were more active.  Average daily planetary A   
   index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index   
   rose from 9.6 to 14.4.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then   
   150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,   
   then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and   
   11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on   
   June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June   
   21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26   
   and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165   
   and 160 on July 2 to 4.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,   
   5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5   
   on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,   
   5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,   
   and 5 through the first week of July.   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere - May 25, 2023   
      
   We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun   
   and around the Earth.  The large, seen even without binoculars   
   (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern   
   hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an   
   X-ray event maximum of M9.6.   
      
   Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic   
   field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the   
   other flares.  The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events   
   (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in   
   the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).   
   Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often   
   significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands   
   by deep and irregular fadeouts.   
      
   SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the   
   Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,   
   Seven Sisters star cluster.  Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating   
   since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time.  No one had   
   ever seen anything like it before.   
      
   Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,   
   AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes   
   on.  So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening   
   shortwave propagation conditions continues.   
      
   F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"   
      
   K7EG wrote:   
      
   "I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an   
   increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity   
   impacting trends in radio disturbances.  Tell me I am wrong and it's   
   just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and   
   worsening."   
      
   I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more   
   flares, solar wind, and disturbances.  I think the disturbances are   
   normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.   
      
   When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to   
   see what is happening in real time:   
      
   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index   
      
   Beautiful aurora:  https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6   
      
   Sunspot images:  https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9   
      
   https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/   
      
   https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm   
      
   Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting   
   the ionosphere.  https://bit.ly/428OAwM   
      
   This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest.   
   https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us   
   which mode you were operating.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,   
   97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4.  10.7 cm flux was 150.6,   
   164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,   
   with a mean of 17.1.  Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,   
   11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 123/10 131 153/7715   
   SEEN-BY: 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/6 226/17 18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 227/114 229/110 112 113 206 307 317 426 428 470 664   
   SEEN-BY: 229/700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 291/111 301/1 317/3 320/219   
   SEEN-BY: 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281 412 418 712/620   
   SEEN-BY: 712/848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0 33 105 304 401   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426