TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 444.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28c40305   
   PID: Synchronet 3.20a-Win32 master/4985797d2 May  9 2023 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.20-Win32 master/4985797d2 May  9 2023 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP19   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 12, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,   
   May 4-10.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and   
   average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1   
      
   Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and   
   average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on   
   May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on   
   May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on   
   May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,   
   160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May   
   15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May   
   27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and   
   12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20   
   on June 19-20.   
      
   Stormy space weather:   
      
   https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge   
      
   BBC on viewing aurora:   
      
   https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/   
      
   More:   
      
   https://bit.ly/44Rruxk   
      
   Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:   
      
   "Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.   
      
   I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This   
   around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up   
   portable.   
      
   Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty   
   keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:   
      
   00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down   
   several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.   
      
   00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.   
      
   22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU   
      
   Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --   
   TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000   
   UTC."   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.   
      
   "The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable   
   it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's   
   magnetosphere and ionosphere.   
      
   This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and   
   also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs   
   overlapping each other were difficult to separate.   
      
   Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected   
   but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.   
   Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310   
   UTC.   
      
   Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus   
   violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.   
      
   The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25   
   MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over   
   1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge   
   accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them   
   'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They   
   can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.   
      
   These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the   
   particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are   
   expected to arrive.   
      
   Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the   
   solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged   
   in the northeast.   
      
   Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group   
   will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the   
   evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."   
      
   Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:   
      
   https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us   
   which mode you were operating.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,   
   103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,   
   161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with   
   a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and   
   19, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 123/131 153/7715 154/10 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/70 221/1 6 226/17 30 227/114 229/110 112 113   
   SEEN-BY: 229/206 307 317 426 428 470 664 700 240/1120 1634 5832 8001   
   SEEN-BY: 240/8002 8005 266/512 267/800 280/5003 282/1038 291/111 301/1   
   SEEN-BY: 313/41 317/3 320/219 322/757 331/313 333/808 334/10 335/206   
   SEEN-BY: 335/364 370 341/66 342/200 371/0 396/45 460/58 633/267 280   
   SEEN-BY: 633/281 412 418 712/133 620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 3634/12 4500/1   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 240/1120 335/364 221/6 218/840   
   PATH: 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426