SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP19   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 13, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   As reported in the ARRL Letter, on Wednesday May 11 six sunspot   
   groups were visible, but that number shrunk to two on Thursday.   
   Daily sunspot numbers declined from 84 to 29 over those two days as   
   well, but the average sunspot number for the reporting week   
   (Thursday, May 5 through Wednesday, May 11) grew by nearly 7 points   
   from last week to 74.6.   
      
   The latest forecast shows planetary A index of 10 for today, May 13,   
   then 8 on May 14-16, 10 on May 17, 8 on May 18, and 5 on May 19-25.   
   The next possibly big geomagnetic period is May 27, with a planetary   
   A index of 22.   
      
   The same forecast predicts solar flux of 95 on May 13-14, 90 on May   
   15-19, and 110 on May 20-30.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   May 13, quiet May 14, quiet to unsettled May 15, unsettled May   
   16-18, and quiet to unsettled again on May 19.   
      
   On May 9 NASA released a slightly revised prediction for the peak of   
   Cycle 24, placing it at a smoothed sunspot number of 69 in June   
   2013.  But a month earlier the estimate had a peak of 62 in July   
   2013.  Last month NASA was predicting this cycle as the weakest in   
   200 years, but the update places it as the weakest in the last   
   century.   
      
   These are Zurich sunspot numbers, which are always quite a bit lower   
   than the NOAA SESC numbers that we report here.  The NOAA numbers   
   show a peak at 90 around February through July 2013.   
      
   On May 10, Rol Anders, K3RA of Elkridge, Maryland wrote, "After a   
   slow week or so, propagation has rebounded with extremely strong   
   signals from Europe and Central Asia on 20 meters for several hours   
   after their sunrise time. Many 30 and 40 dB over signals heard in   
   Maryland.  I think there have been a lot of tardy arrivals at work   
   in EU and Central Asia as the hams have had difficulty pulling   
   themselves away from such great conditions in the morning! Also, 17   
   meters has been very good in the evening with JAs and other Asian   
   stations coming back to CQs 3 hours after sunset on the East Coast.   
   15 meters has been open to the Far East after sunset as well.  Most   
   interesting was working JQ1QKK short path on 20 meter phone at 3 pm   
   his time, 2 AM east coast time!   
      
   "One 'trick' that I sometimes use to find openings is to look for   
   'analogous openings' at my latitude. If I can work a DX station   
   close to my latitude at a certain time of the day, then it is likely   
   that I'll be able to work stations at that latitude the same   
   distance away in the other direction when my local time is the same   
   as that first DX station's was. Perhaps this is best explained by an   
   example: the latitudes of JA and EX/EY/EZ/YA are not too different   
   from Maryland, and they are both roughly the same distance away from   
   me.  So, if JQ1QKK in the example above was working me at 3 pm his   
   time (2 am my time), there should be an opening to the general   
   EX/EY/EZ area from MD at 3 pm my time, 2 am EX/EY/EX time. This can   
   be extended to other latitudes if you know what DX stations at your   
   latitude are working. For instance, if I hear stations at my rough   
   latitude (EA, I, SV, EX, JA) working a path, I should have that same   
   path when my local time is the same as theirs was when they   
   experienced those paths. Of course, my path will be to an entirely   
   different part of the world."   
      
   Mark Bell, K3MSB of Airville, Pennsylvania wrote, "Had some nice 6M   
   sporadic-E action here around May 3. Worked YV4DYJ in FK50 at 2253Z.   
   Stations from LU were coming in quite strong the next two days."   
      
   N0JK reports from Kansas that on May 5 he worked LU4FW on 6 meters   
   with a sporadic-E trans-equatorial link. It was at 2138z, and he was   
   using an indoor dipole.   
      
   Rich Molinski, WB2KWF of Smithfield, Virginia reported from FM16qw   
   that on May 2 he worked 9Y4D and YV4DYJ on 6 meters using 80 watts   
   and a 3 element beam at 35 feet, with 5x3 reports each way.  On May   
   6 he reported, "I was amazed at the propagation! It's nice to see 6m   
   open up. Each night this week, 6 has been open to some degree."   
      
   Bob Elek, W3HKK in central Ohio reports an E-skip opening on May 5   
   on 6 meters. He reports, "A C6 was 59+20 and had half the US calling   
   him on SSB.  Then for the first time in my 55 year ham radio career:   
   TE skip to Argentina!  (Interestingly I had just finished reading   
   the VHF column in CQ Magazine describing how May was the poorest   
   month for TE skip and not to expect it.) Well, around dinner time in   
   Ohio, on May 5th there it was. The 6M band literally teeming with   
   Argentine stations, mostly on SSB, from 50.1 to 50.13 MHz.  LU after   
   LU working pile ups, calling CQ, and coming in between 5x3 to 5x9   
   (on my 5 el Yagi, 10 ft above my rear patio, equipped with the   
   standard Armstrong rotator, and fed by an IC7600 100w rig).   
      
   "At 2125z I worked LW3EX on 50.101 CW, then at 2133 9Y4VUX on 50.100   
   CW, and then at 2200z LU9EEM on 50.120 SSB, all with sigs between 57   
   and 59! In between I tuned around for other countries and passed up   
   on many LUs. Another local op worked the VP8 (Falkland Islands), and   
   a couple spots showed one station in OA and CE coming through but I   
   didn't hear them.   
      
   "So, in summary, a very telescopic opening via TE into Argentina lit   
   up 6M, and when things quieted down at around 2230z, I left for   
   dinner a little late but a very happy camper."   
      
   Roger Gibson, K4KLK of Raleigh, North Carolina (in FM05) reports,   
   "Six was open all day May 5 to WI area and then FL. I was surprised   
   to hear LU4FW FF97 on halo antenna in garage. I quickly turned   
   antenna south then connected the 4 El Quad 20 feet up and got him on   
   first call with 100 watts. Not many takers but signal was very   
   strong 59+ more like F2 and no fading. Contact made on 50.125 SSB at   
   2200Z. He was in for several minutes."   
      
   Both K5LJ and N4ZQ wonder why it seems that most sunspots appear in   
   the Sun's northern hemisphere so far in this cycle.  I ran this by   
   K9LA who says, "Hemispherical asymmetry of sunspots has been known   
   and studied for quite a while. I don't think there's an air-tight   
   explanation yet, but it is tied to the Sun's conveyor belt.  So   
   what's happening now is 'normal' in the sense that it's been seen   
   before in other cycles."  He noted that butterfly diagrams of Cycle   
   20 show this predominance toward the beginning of the cycle, around   
   1965.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11 were 95, 71, 38, 61, 93, 80,   
   and 84, with a mean of 74.6. 10.7 cm flux was 104.9, 101.9, 102.2,   
   102.2, 103.7, 97.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 100.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 7, 4, 4, 2, 3, 8, and 6, with a mean of   
   4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 0, 2, 5, and 7,   
   with a mean of 3.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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