TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 431.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28ba42d7   
   PID: Synchronet 3.20a-Win32 master/a59d7d36d Apr 13 2023 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.20-Win32 master/a59d7d36d Apr 13 2023 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018   
   ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP18   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 5, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP018   
   ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Spaceweather.com posted the following report on May 4:   
      
   "REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES: A rare reversed-polarity   
   sunspot exploded today, producing a long-lasting M-class solar flare   
   and a CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this   
   weekend if/when the CME arrives."   
      
   Sunspot activity and solar flux increased over the past reporting   
   week, April 27 through May 3.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while   
   average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and   
   average daily middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next month is 162 on May 5-6, 164 on   
   May 7, 162 on May 8-9, 164 on May 10-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165,   
   160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, then 130   
   and 125 on May 22-23, 120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May   
   26-28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145, 150 and 155, 160 and   
   165 on June 3-7, 170 on June 8-9, then 165, 160, 155, 150, and 145   
   on June 10-14.    .   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on   
   May 6-9, 5 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-22, 12 and 20 on   
   May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 8 and 12 on May 27-28, 10 on May 29-30,   
   then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4-6, 8 on   
   June 7-8, and 5 on June 9 through mid-month and beyond.   
      
   On Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, "INTENSIFYING SOLAR   
   ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3293-3296 is crackling with strong   
   M-class solar flares--six of them today so far."   
      
   It looks like we face continued favorable HF propagation.   
      
   Recently I wrote of my bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed   
   using FT8 and pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being   
   reported in Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.   
      
   On May 1 from 1930-2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from   
   2,200-2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip   
   distance. Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance   
   in a 500 mile band. So, this suggests that it isn't just Florida,   
   and that the same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico   
   and the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't see it because there are no   
   stations there to receive my signal.   
      
   Later I saw multi-hop reports from ZL4KYH at 7,246 miles, 5W1SA at   
   5,230 miles, LU8EX at 6,893 miles and LU4FTA at 6,750 miles.   
      
   Jon N0JK wrote on April 29:   
      
   "I was able to work LU9DO, LU8EX and PY2XB that afternoon. The South   
   American signals popped up on what was otherwise a dead band. Later   
   some station in Florida came in. I was running 50 watts and a 3   
   element Yagi portable in EM28, northeast Kansas. May 1 - D2UY worked   
   stations in Florida and W3LPL in Maryland on was likely Es -- TEP.   
      
   "There will likely be more of these Es -- TEP openings in early   
   May."   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere May 05-11, 2023 from OK1HH:   
      
   "While long-term forecasters are beginning to come to terms with the   
   possibility that the growth in solar activity could slow this year   
   and the current 25th cycle may not be one of the high ones, solar   
   activity has begun to increase. Already last week, sunspot group   
   AR3288 in the southwest with an unstable delta class magnetic field   
   was the source of an M7 class solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But   
   another M7 class eruption occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged   
   AR3293 in the northeastern part of the solar disk.   
      
   "Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296 in the northwest,   
   violates Hale's Law, as it has the opposite magnetic polarity that   
   is appropriate in the current 11-year cycle (polarity should be   
   negative on the left and positive on the right).   
      
   "The solar wind speed and Earth's magnetic field activity have   
   finally begun to decrease after a long active period, and the   
   conditions for shortwave propagation have finally improved, although   
   not to the extent we had hoped."   
      
   A story from Sky & Telescope about the Sun:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NGlMbp   
      
   Two stories about massive solar flares, one from about 400 years   
   ago:   
      
   https://bit.ly/427oI5w   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ASEfu1   
      
   Some nonsense about flares:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NGD5t3   
      
   More Aurora in our future:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3AZxDKl   
      
   A story about Radio Blackout:   
      
   https://bit.ly/41bVL74   
      
   More about Aurora Australis:   
      
   https://ab.co/44qDbet   
      
   This weekend is the 10-10 CW QSO Party, on 10 meters of course:   
      
   https://www.ten-ten.org/activity/2013-07-22-20-26-48/qso-party-rules   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us   
   which mode you were operating.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2023 were 136, 111, 82,   
   105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,   
   149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,   
   with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,   
   9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 15/0 18/0 50/109 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18   
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   SEEN-BY: 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/1   
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   SEEN-BY: 275/1000 282/1038 299/6 301/1 113 317/3 320/219 322/757 335/364   
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   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 5020/1042 301/1 221/6 218/840   
   PATH: 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426