TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 335.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28425039   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP05   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 3, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to   
   139.5.   
      
   This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of   
   weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first   
   Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4   
   and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and   
   198.9.   
      
   This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar   
   rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed   
   sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a   
   whole year.   
      
   Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index   
   shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did   
   not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145   
   on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on   
   February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on   
   February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on   
   February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145   
   on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on   
   February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February   
   10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10   
   on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on   
   February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,   
   then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar   
   Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.   
   Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic   
   fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to   
   an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only   
   moderately powerful.   
      
   "Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar   
   wind increased.   
      
   "In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192   
   fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity   
   decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind   
   intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that   
   had already set.   
      
   "Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major   
   fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity   
   of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to   
   wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."   
      
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his   
   10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about   
   100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation   
   continues.   
      
   Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is   
   recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via   
   F2 propagation.   
      
   Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling   
   frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a   
   lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."   
      
   Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX   
   Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.   
      
   Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:   
      
   https://bit.ly/40DEzsj   
      
   Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:   
      
   "Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8.  I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on   
   Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC.  He gave me a +04 and I gave him   
   a -13 dB report.  Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but   
   no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.   
      
   "For the past month or so, European openings are from about   
   1500-1730 UTC here in California.   
      
   "Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's   
   QSO. LP?   
      
   "I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my   
   inverted Vees all common feedpoint.   
      
   "You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the   
   right time!"   
      
   Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:   
      
   "Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke   
   last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in   
   Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over   
   S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after   
   15 meters usually shuts down there.   Was great to connect with my   
   heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were   
   working stations all across the USA and Canada."   
      
   Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of   
   Solar Cycle 19, wrote:   
      
   "We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only   
   pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I   
   got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from   
   the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.   
      
   "As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama   
   and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what   
   frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back   
   then."   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,   
   76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,   
   144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a   
   mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,   
   with a mean of 5.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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