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   MSGID: 327.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 282ffbac   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP03   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 20, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"   
   I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.   
      
   This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.   
      
   Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak   
   of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of   
   this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last   
   seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide   
   coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while   
   average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice   
   daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia   
   observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.   
   These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle   
   number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for   
   the day.   
      
   From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for   
   the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year   
   high."   
      
   Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,   
      
   On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very   
   high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy   
   throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in   
   Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.   
   There was a large polar cap absorption event.   
      
   Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January   
   12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January   
   15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,   
   210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,   
   190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,   
   205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235   
   and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February   
   17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190   
   on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected   
   to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on   
   January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January   
   29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,   
   then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then   
   8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,   
   10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and   
   8 on February 27 through March 2.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by   
   helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of   
   active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb   
   of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.   
      
   "Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one   
   solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns   
   back (November 18) only 116.   
      
   "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly   
   confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a   
   maximum at 0057 UTC.   
      
   "Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles   
   never left the Sun.   
      
   "In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the   
   newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An   
   X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850   
   UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during   
   nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,   
   especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until   
   the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the   
   western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January   
   10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot   
   group AR3186.   
      
   "As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability   
   of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or   
   more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF   
   levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation   
   gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult   
   to predict accurately."   
      
   Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:   
      
   "Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is   
   like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."   
      
   I replied:   
      
   "On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be   
   best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.   
      
   "I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from   
   my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and   
   to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and   
   10:30 PM (0630 UTC).   
      
   "From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting   
   at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500   
   and 2330 UTC.   
      
   "To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of   
   course, these are statistical approximations."   
      
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun   
   on 10 meter FM.   
      
   "Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks   
   for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling   
   frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.   
      
   "I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.   
      
   "Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.   
      
   "The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it   
   difficult at times.   
      
   "He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"   
      
   Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with   
   Argentina:   
      
   https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08   
      
   Earlier, Mike reported:   
      
   "On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop   
   sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,   
   Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.   
      
   "Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,   
   Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair   
   signals. All the signals had light QSB.   
      
   "UTC:    Callsign:     Grid:   
   1544     F5SDD         JN23qf   
   1617     G4RIE         IO83rn   
   1803     XE2LVM        DL92dp   
   2040     AL7ID         BP64ku   
   2040     LU1HJS        FF79XX"   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK reported:   
      
   "Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.   
      
   "First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto   
   Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70   
   spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No   
   intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported   
   to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day   
   yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]   
      
   "Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in   
   DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.   
      
   "That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked   
   PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around   
   2230 UTC.   
      
   "The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a   
   possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this   
   contest."   
      
   Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.   
      
   Sunspots in the news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4   
      
   Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:   
      
   https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/   
      
   An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC   
      
   Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,   
   186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,   
   208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,   
   with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,   
   5, and 11, with a mean of 10.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 120/340 123/10 131   
   SEEN-BY: 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/6   
   SEEN-BY: 226/17 18 30 227/114 229/110 111 112 113 114 206 307 317   
   SEEN-BY: 229/424 426 428 470 664 700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 301/1   
   SEEN-BY: 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281   
   SEEN-BY: 633/412 416 418 712/620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 33 105 304 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426