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   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
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   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 13, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could   
   be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and   
   by far the all time largest.   
      
   But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is   
   emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak   
   about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.   
      
   Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look   
   forward to great HF propagation for years to come.   
      
   There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,   
   January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January   
   8, another on January 9  two more January 10 and still another on   
   January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average   
   daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven   
   days.   
      
   On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far   
   above the 181.2 average for the previous week.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and   
   middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.   
      
   Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation   
   Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only   
   42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).   
   10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.   
      
   The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between   
   the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday   
   numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and   
   204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and   
   135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then   
   155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through   
   February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then   
   180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on   
   February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and   
   increasing to 160 by the end of the month.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on   
   January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January   
   22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,   
   then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8   
   on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on   
   February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:   
      
   "There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America   
   January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United   
   States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.   
      
   "Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD   
   (EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC   
   January 6.   
      
   "High Solar Activity this week."   
      
   N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.   
      
   https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by   
   helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the   
   region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the   
   eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their   
   arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.   
   Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two   
   turns back (November 18) only 116.   
      
   "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly   
   confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a   
   maximum at 0057 UTC.   
      
   Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never   
   left the Sun.   
      
   "In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly   
   erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class   
   flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).   
      
   "Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when   
   it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,   
   especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until   
   the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was   
   seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On   
   January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new   
   sunspot group AR3186.   
      
   "As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of   
   Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more   
   importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF   
   levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation   
   conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are   
   difficult to predict accurately."   
      
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On   
   Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E   
   transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,   
   then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.   
      
   "Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no   
   difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely   
   perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.   
      
   "Time UTC:    Callsign:   Grid:    Miles   
   1346         G3YPZ       JO02bs   3,494   
   1354,1528    G4RIE       IO83rn   3,372   
   1413,1521    2E0PLO      IO91wm   3,511   
   1600         EA2CCG      IN92ao   3,660   
   1813         KP4NVX      FK68vl   1,625"   
      
   Here is a photo of the Sun:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR   
      
   One of a Solar flare:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3W9EWav   
      
   Solar news in the Washington Post:   
      
   https://wapo.st/3iul6sN   
      
   An article on Radio blackouts:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV   
      
   The Parker Solar Probe:   
      
   https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic   
      
   The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,   
   142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,   
   172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a   
   mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,   
   with a mean of 6.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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