TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 320.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 282307b5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP01   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 6, 2023   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December   
   30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.   
      
   Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot   
   number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14   
   points to 157.8.   
      
   On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the   
   average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on   
   January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January   
   12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on   
   January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,   
   155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,   
   145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145   
   on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January   
   8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January   
   22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January   
   29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February   
   2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier   
   last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the   
   predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended   
   with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.   
      
   "Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class   
   in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very   
   rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also   
   the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR   
   (co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.   
      
   "This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in   
   the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which   
   produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30   
   at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an   
   expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -   
   the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.   
      
   "The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of   
   solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a   
   six-year low.   
      
   "Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'   
   named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic   
   rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship   
   between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the   
   cosmic ray decline will grow.   
      
   "On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the   
   Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright   
   CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of   
   the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on   
   the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to   
   see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect   
   an X-class flare from it.   
      
   "The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the   
   first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3   
   at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was   
   calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the   
   ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading   
   shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).   
      
   "ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of   
   meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if   
   it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are   
   excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5   
   are visible to the naked eye)."   
      
   OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast   
   for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with   
   current numbers.   
      
   In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average   
   sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.   
   Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.   
      
   Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz   
      
   Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm   
      
   Solar outburst:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3X6oUio   
      
   A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2   
      
   Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:   
      
   http://www.solen.info/solar/   
      
   Identifying unknown HF signals:   
      
   https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were   
   113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux   
   was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean   
   of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,   
   and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,   
   9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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