TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 313.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 28142e16   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 30, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and   
   rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped   
   from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average   
   planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers   
   from 5.1 to 12.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160  January   
   1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,   
   136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January   
   15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and   
   132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and   
   140 on January 31 through February 4.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022   
   through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10   
   on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January   
   17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January   
   23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10   
   on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,   
   perhaps until mid-February.   
      
   The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our   
   solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to   
   New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon   
   readings from this source:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1   
      
   Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings   
   were posted after Christmas Eve.   
      
   Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion   
   Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on   
   holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.   
      
   From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January   
   05, 2023.   
      
   "Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3   
   Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5   
   Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5   
   Minor storm: Jan 3-4   
   Major storm: 0   
   Severe storm: 0   
      
   "We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the   
   coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic   
   activity enhancement again with a possible active event.   
      
   "The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4   
   in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.   
      
   "Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions   
   generally."   
      
   From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.   
      
   "A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would   
   remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had   
   relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major   
   flares.   
      
   At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days   
   continued until 27 December, with highly variable and   
   difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.   
   Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.   
      
   "From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.   
   Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the   
   western edge of the solar disk.   
      
   "The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament   
   explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the   
   slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day   
   period) of December.   
      
   "According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class   
   geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic   
   field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We   
   expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher   
   latitudes again.   
      
   "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the   
   far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their   
   heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.   
   Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."   
      
   Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential   
   threats.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ   
      
   Unusual solar events:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0   
      
   Big 2022 solar news:   
      
   https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022   
      
   A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space   
   Weather Woman:   
      
   https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk   
      
   Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day   
   is Straight Key Night:   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,   
   107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,   
   127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,   
   with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,   
   16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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