TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 308.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 280b118b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: UTF-8 4   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP51   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 23, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   I am writing this first draft of my penultimate bulletin of 2022,   
   about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern   
   Hemisphere, which was on Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 2147 UTC.   
   It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees F on the longest night   
   of the year.   
      
   Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it   
   was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers   
   and solar flux changed in opposite directions.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while   
   solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.   
      
   Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 17, one more on December   
   19, another on December 21, and two more on December 22.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A   
   index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6   
   to 5.1.   
      
   Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers, the December   
   16 middle latitude A index which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.   
      
   Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short term peak of 160 on   
   January 4-7, 2023, which may repeat on the last day of January and   
   the first few days in February.   
      
   The forecast shows 130 on December 23-25, 135 on December 26–30,   
   138 on December 31, then 140, 150 and 155 on January 1-3, 2023, 160   
   on January 4-7, then 158, 156, 154, 154 and 152 on January 8-12, 150   
   on January 13-15, then 145, 130 and 120 on January 16-18, 118 on   
   January 19-20, then 120, 125 and 127 on January 21-23, 130 on   
   January 24-25, then 135, 138, 140, 150 and 155 on January 26, and   
   160 on January 31 through the first few days of February.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on December 23-25, 5 on   
   December 26-29, 10 and 12 on December 30-31, then 8, 5 and 18 on   
   January 1-3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, then 8, 10 and 6 on January   
   6-8, 5 on January 9-14, then 12, 10 and 20 on January 15-17, then   
   12, 8, 5 and 18 on January 18-21, and 20 on January 22-24, then 12,   
   10, 12, 8 and 5 on January 25-29.   
      
   OK1HH writes:   
      
   "Over the past seven days, we observed up to seven sunspot groups on   
   the solar disk, three in succession had sizes and configurations   
   suggesting the possibility of an M-class flare.   
      
   "AR3165 fell behind the western limb on December 17, while we   
   observed AR3169 the same day. The largest AR3163 went over the limb   
   on December 22. Solar activity, both total and flare activity,   
   slowly decreased.   
      
   "A shock wave (probably the CME released by sunspot AR3165 last   
   week) hit Earth's magnetic field late on December 18, but a   
   geomagnetic storm did not develop, only a slight increase in   
   geomagnetic activity. This was repeated on December 21 and   
   especially the next day, when it was a recurrent disturbance,   
   repeated after about 27 days.   
      
   "Solar activity is likely to remain low until Christmas. The   
   situation may change next week, when one or more active sunspot   
   groups will appear on the eastern limb of the solar disk.   
      
   "Shortwave propagation was mostly above average with slightly   
   elevated MUF values. Diurnal variations were erratic. This pattern   
   will continue."   
      
   Jon, N0JK wrote:   
      
   "A strong sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz from Kansas to the Gulf Coast   
   Sunday December 18.   
      
   "I logged K3FM EM50, WA3GWK EM60, W5THT EM50, and N4UPX EM50 on   
   50.313 MHz FT8 around 1600 UTC with strong signals. My station was   
   100 watts and an attic dipole."   
      
   More big solar flare news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3YHi5Wf   
      
   https://bit.ly/3PKXts4   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HXk1DW   
      
   https://bit.ly/3FPgipw   
      
   Found this interesting resource in the ARRL Letter:   
      
   https://haarp.gi.alaska.edu/diagnostic-suite   
      
   From Dr. Tony Phillips on cycles:   
      
   https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/12/   
      
   On Thursday using remotehamradio.com I made a 10 meter contact with   
   Ralph, VE3LOE. He sent me an email, which I have edited:   
      
   "About 2 years ago I was in touch with Scott McIntosh at the   
   National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, who made a   
   minority-opinion propagation forecast for Solar Cycle 25 which   
   suggests much higher solar activity than what his colleagues   
   predict. See 'Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot   
   Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude' (text dated October   
   2020).   
      
   "The latest installment, entitled 'Deciphering Solar Magnetic   
   Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021,' which is at:   
      
   "https://arxiv.org/a/mcintosh_s_1.html   
      
   "I scanned this latter paper just now. Although I am a retired   
   engineer from the telecom sector with a PhD in statistical traffic   
   analysis of pre-Internet data networks, and understand the   
   statistical math used in these papers, I am not a propagation   
   expert. However, in the last publication, Figure 10 predicts a mean   
   SSN just under 200, higher than other expert predictions. This   
   present cycle has been interesting in its statistical variability.   
      
   "I am primarily a 10m enthusiast and use this band on a daily basis,   
   generally in the 1300-1700 UTC timeframe when the EU openings take   
   place.  For some of my other ham interests and operating conditions   
   you can visit my QRZ.com page."   
      
   K7RA notes - download this pdf:   
      
   https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf   
      
   A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139,   
   128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. 10.7 cm flux was   
   165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155,6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of   
   153.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9,   
   with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5,   
   and 7, with a mean of 5.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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