TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 302.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2801d731   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP50   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 16, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the   
   great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.   
      
   Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers   
   jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from   
   137.5 to 150.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing   
   from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.   
      
   Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal   
   combination for favorable HF propagation.   
      
   New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new   
   sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on   
   December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.   
      
   N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:   
      
   "What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the   
   ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both   
   coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All   
   Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux   
   this year was 148, last year only 78."   
      
   The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at   
   164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on   
   December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on   
   January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and   
   115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December   
   18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on   
   December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through   
   January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January   
   7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,   
   and 20 on January 21-24.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,   
   starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up   
   to 600 km/s) on 8 December.   
      
   "It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the   
   western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament   
   erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.   
      
   "We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December   
   12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed   
   to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's   
   magnetic field calmed down.   
      
   "On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,   
   the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later   
   there were eleven sunspot groups.   
      
   "Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma   
   magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest   
   on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger   
   effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed   
   the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The   
   increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore   
   the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.   
      
   "Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and   
   worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December   
   20."   
      
   The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HCHytO   
      
   David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O   
      
   Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3FuPniB   
      
   Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a   
   Carrington event?   
      
   https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR   
      
   Newsweek reports on the terminator event:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3   
      
   More and more news about flares:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK   
      
   https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k   
      
   Another Solar Cycle 19?   
      
   https://bit.ly/3FYgioi   
      
   N0JK reports:   
      
   "Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."   
      
   More 6 meter news from KM0T:   
      
   "Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In   
   fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.   
   Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them   
   first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then   
   worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2   
   hop.   
      
   "There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of   
   the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the   
   exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a   
   blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,   
   let us know as that would be an interesting path.   
      
   "My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the   
   ice storm.  Bottom antenna about 25 feet.  (Stacked 6el over 6el,   
   20' apart)   
      
   "Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.   
      
   "I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham   
   Island here some months ago.   
      
   The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did).  I heard snow   
   and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.   
      
   "That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With   
   the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if   
   you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper   
   Midwest with true F2.   
      
   "I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning.  It rained   
   pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came   
   around, my ice was off the antennas.   
      
   "Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.   
   +25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in   
   between the ZLs.   
      
   "First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.   
   Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig.  He gave me a +00.   
      
   "Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north.  At 0107   
   UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."   
      
   He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was   
   probably FT8 or FT4.   
      
   W2ZDP reported on December 14:   
      
   "There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it   
   around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.   
      
   "I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I   
   didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local   
   time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing   
   both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several   
   attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for   
   100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an   
   informative new video:   
      
   https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,   
   141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,   
   149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with   
   a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,   
   with a mean of 6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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