TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 297.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27f90759   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d1dfc9c1b Dec  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP49   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 9, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.   
   With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and   
   geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better?  Well, even more   
   sunspots, I guess.  But this sunspot cycle is already progressing   
   better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average   
   daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.   
      
   How do these numbers compare with a year ago?  The week of December   
   2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar   
   flux at 82.6.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while   
   middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to   
   11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and   
   15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on   
   December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then   
   140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9   
   and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on   
   December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,   
   then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,   
   then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then   
   5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10   
   on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.   
      
   Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.   
      
   https://www.arrl.org/10-meter   
      
   In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest   
   prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic   
   numbers, ideal conditions.   
      
   F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the   
   fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we   
   have become accustomed to this year.  The most prominent feature was   
   the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to   
   the western half of the solar disk.   
      
   But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.   
   From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow   
   from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a   
   geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.   
      
   Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge   
   of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in   
   the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in   
   the ionosphere.   
      
   Don't expect more accurate predictions.   
      
   A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar   
   radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the   
   day.  Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in   
   the longer part of the short wave band."   
      
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:   
      
   "On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I   
   received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ   
   using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via   
   F2 propagation.  Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050   
   degrees.   
      
   The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide   
   Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz   
   with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.  Licensed users   
   are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.   
      
   G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation  Trial   
   license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,   
   starting April 1, 2022.   
      
   Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna   
   (custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.   
      
   The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu.  The Estimated Planetary K   
   index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.   
      
   I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite.  The Band Activity window   
   displayed the following eight decodes.   
      
   142915 -14  0.3  526 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   142945  -5  0.3  526 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143015  -4  0.3  526 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143045 -10  0.3  526 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143115  -6  0.3  525 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143145  -9  0.3  525 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143215 -16  0.3  524 CQ G9PUV JO00   
   143245 -11  0.3  524 CQ G9PUV JO00   
      
   Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square   
   IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2.  He decoded   
   twenty-two times.   
      
   Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.   
      
   EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland.  (EI) radio amateurs are   
   authorized to transmit on this band without a Test  Trial license   
   from ComReg.   
      
   The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.   
      
   152300 -14  0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152600 -18  0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152630 -13  0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152700 -19  0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152730 -12  0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152800 -22  0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152830 -14  0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152900 -11  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   152930 -15  0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153000 -21  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153530 -15  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153600 -18  0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153630 -20  0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153700 -19  0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153800 -14  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153830 -13  0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153900 -20  0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   153930 -18  0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   154000 -16  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   154030 -20  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   154100 -16  0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52   
   155700 -20  0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"   
      
   Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:   
      
   https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures   
      
   Solar physics:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:   
      
   https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk   
      
   WX6SWW Current video:   
      
   https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE   
      
   Newsweek sunspot report:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,   
   89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85.  10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,   
   133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean   
   of 14.4.  Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,   
   with a mean of 9.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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