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|    Daryl Stout to All    |
|    ARRL Propagation Bulletin    |
|    02 Dec 22 17:48:49    |
      TZUTC: -0600       MSGID: 293.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27efc606       PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929       TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929       BBSID: TBOLT       CHRS: ASCII 1              SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048       ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA              ZCZC AP48       QST de W1AW        Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048       From Tad Cook, K7RA       Seattle, WA December 2, 2022       To all radio amateurs              SB PROP ARL ARLP048       ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA              No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24       to 30. But sunspots were visible every day. Then on December 1       three new sunspot groups emerged. The sunspot number rose from 12       to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.              Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week       (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from       66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.              Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators       active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to       18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.              On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska       showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past       month. No doubt this produced aurora. The next day the disturbance       continued, with collage A index at 51. These are very large       numbers.              The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a       peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted. This       is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter. We       might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.              Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on       December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130,       115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on       December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on       December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to       6, 2023.              The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2       to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on       December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,       then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18       and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3,       2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.              OK1HH wrote:              "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the       course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed       significantly from the week before.              The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a       fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's       magnetic field mostly increased.              The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in       the solar wind hit the Earth. In the ionosphere we could first       observe an increase in MUF. Further development of the disturbance       continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave       propagation.              Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections       (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity,       but without the possibility of more precise timing.              On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the       southeastern limb of the Sun. So solar activity will not drop, but       will probably rise again over the next few days.              Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather       the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better.       In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening       intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."              Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number       Series"              https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX              This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:              https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/              Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.              Solar wind news:              https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW              Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to       k7ra@arrl.net .              For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see       http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information       Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an       explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see       http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .              An archive of past propagation bulletins is at       http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good       information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .              Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL       bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .              Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60,       56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. 10.7 cm flux was 109.7,       108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.       Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24,       with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18,       20, and 17, with a mean of 14.       NNNN       /EX       --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32        * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)       SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 120/340 123/10 131       SEEN-BY: 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/6       SEEN-BY: 226/17 18 30 227/114 229/110 111 112 113 114 206 317 424       SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 301/1 317/3       SEEN-BY: 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281 412       SEEN-BY: 633/416 418 712/620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0       SEEN-BY: 2320/33 105 304 3634/12       PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426           |
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