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   LS_ARRL      Bulletins from the ARRL      3,036 messages   

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   Message 2,760 of 3,036   
   Daryl Stout to All   
   ARRL Propagation Bulletin   
   02 Dec 22 17:48:49   
   
   TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 293.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27efc606   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP48   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 2, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24   
   to 30.  But sunspots were visible every day.  Then on December 1   
   three new sunspot groups emerged.  The sunspot number rose from 12   
   to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.   
      
   Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week   
   (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from   
   66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.   
      
   Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators   
   active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to   
   18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.   
      
   On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska   
   showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past   
   month.  No doubt this produced aurora.  The next day the disturbance   
   continued, with collage A index at 51.  These are very large   
   numbers.   
      
   The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a   
   peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted.  This   
   is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter.  We   
   might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.   
      
   Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on   
   December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130,   
   115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on   
   December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on   
   December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to   
   6, 2023.   
      
   The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2   
   to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on   
   December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,   
   then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18   
   and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3,   
   2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the   
   course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed   
   significantly from the week before.   
      
   The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a   
   fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's   
   magnetic field mostly increased.   
      
   The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in   
   the solar wind hit the Earth.  In the ionosphere we could first   
   observe an increase in MUF.  Further development of the disturbance   
   continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave   
   propagation.   
      
   Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections   
   (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity,   
   but without the possibility of more precise timing.   
      
   On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the   
   southeastern limb of the Sun.  So solar activity will not drop, but   
   will probably rise again over the next few days.   
      
   Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather   
   the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better.   
   In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening   
   intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."   
      
   Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number   
   Series"   
      
   https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX   
      
   This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:   
      
   https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/   
      
   Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.   
      
   Solar wind news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60,   
   56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46.  10.7 cm flux was 109.7,   
   108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24,   
   with a mean of 18.6.  Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18,   
   20, and 17, with a mean of 14.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 120/340 123/10 131   
   SEEN-BY: 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/6   
   SEEN-BY: 226/17 18 30 227/114 229/110 111 112 113 114 206 317 424   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 301/1 317/3   
   SEEN-BY: 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281 412   
   SEEN-BY: 633/416 418 712/620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/33 105 304 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426   
      

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