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   MSGID: 289.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27ea355b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
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   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047   
   ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP47   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 28, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP047   
   ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ARRL headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and   
   Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh   
   content from Sunday night.   
      
   At 2228 UTC on November 27 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting   
   Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A coronal hole   
   wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity   
   from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec."   
      
   Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November   
   17-23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and   
   average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.   
      
   In the four days since the end of the reporting week the average   
   daily solar flux sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar   
   flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.   
      
   In 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 the average daily   
   sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see   
   Solar Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and   
   middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.   
      
   Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November   
   17 and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on   
   November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared   
   in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on   
   November 21.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28-29, 115 on   
   November 30 through December 3, 120 on December 4, 125 on December   
   5-10, then 130, 135 and 130 on December 11-13, 125 on December   
   14-17, 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-24, and 120 on   
   December 25-31, then 125 on January 1-6, 2023 then 130 and 135 on   
   January 7-8.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15 and 18 on November 28-30, then   
   10, 18 and 10 on December 1-3, 5 on December 4-7, 8 on December 8-9,   
   5 on December 10-16, then 10, 26, 15 and 8 on December 17-20, then   
   10, 15, 8 and 10 on December 21-24, 8 on December 25-27, then 12, 18   
   and 8 on December 28-30, and 5 on December 31 through January 3,   
   2023, then 8 on January 4-5.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:   
      
   "Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody   
   Allen quote, 'If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your   
   plans.'   
      
   "At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic   
   field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic   
   Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on   
   November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on   
   November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed   
   forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing!   
      
   "Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet   
   except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave   
   propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November   
   17, 19 and 24.   
      
   "For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a   
   technique called helioseismology. Its map of the Sun's far side on   
   November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding   
   heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar   
   disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity   
   and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation."   
      
   Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me   
   laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.   
      
   Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star   
   in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an   
   existential threat.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o   
      
   That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.   
      
   More dire warnings from the same source:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd   
      
   This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs   
      
   I haven't seen a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, but you   
   can check our Space Weather Woman's YouTube videos at   
   https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:   
      
   "There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November   
   19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after   
   local sunrise here in Kansas.   
      
   "I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 Meters on FT8. Signals were   
   good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.   
      
   "Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A   
   strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's   
   upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later.   
   Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant   
   sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November, 2022.   
      
   "The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating   
   portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6 meter contacts on   
   sporadic-E.   
      
   "The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on and sporadic-E may have helped   
   contestants make contacts on 20, 15 and 10 meters.   
      
   "Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of   
   the CQ World Wide DX CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud   
   at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts   
   and a magnet mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times."   
      
   N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, "The World Above 50 MHz" in QST.   
      
   Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email   
   reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide   
   DX CW contest. "Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak,   
   and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over   
   the top both days.   
      
   "Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for Asia   
   action! Lots of JA, BY, and YB folks."   
      
   Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an   
   amazing pipeline to Japan.   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022 were 64, 55, 59,   
   72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116,   
   115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of   
   5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a   
   mean of 3.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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