TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 284.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27dd0f22   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/0203737ed Nov 17 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP46   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46  ARLP046   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 18, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast   
   Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:   
      
   "A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective   
   location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction   
   of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.   
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH   
   SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."   
      
   Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.   
   Flux rose, while spots fell.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average   
   solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.   
      
   This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7   
   cm radiation from those spots increased.   
      
   A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and   
   two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which   
   runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group   
   emerged the next day on November 17.   
      
   How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin   
   average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so   
   if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle   
   making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around   
   July 2025, about 32 months from now.   
      
   So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation   
   at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and   
   they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This   
   radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.   
      
   Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so   
   intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around   
   the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in   
   recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.   
      
   Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower   
   short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL   
   Letter.   
      
   Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115   
   on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on   
   November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14,   
   then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December   
   20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible   
   geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on   
   November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on   
   November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December   
   4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5   
   on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and   
   5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.   
      
   Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of   
   December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and   
   2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the   
   prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that   
   weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating   
   predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.   
      
   The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought   
   this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for   
   Friday's bulletin.   
      
   Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:   
      
   "10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South   
   America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los   
   Angeles.  But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to   
   make 150.   
      
   "Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more   
   grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.   
      
   "Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this   
   Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my   
   last solar cycle.   
      
   "I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East   
   and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.   
   Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east   
   coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even   
   with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here   
   in Los Angeles.   
      
   "About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a   
   Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I   
   hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years   
   later.   
      
   "HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I   
   only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I   
   worked and heard was just incredible.  Mostly peaking around   
   1956-1957!"   
      
   OK1HH writes:   
      
   "Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar   
   disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and   
   AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.   
      
   "Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost   
   daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of   
   itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see   
   https://bit.ly/3Askfyi ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the   
   Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'   
      
   "The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,   
   while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.   
   The result has been a relatively long period of above-average   
   shortwave propagation conditions.   
      
   "Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic   
   activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of   
   November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two   
   from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on   
   November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may   
   be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next   
   phase of the disturbance."   
      
   ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious   
   contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to   
   stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when   
   participants are eager for new, fresh stations.   
      
   A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM   
      
   Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR   
      
   Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on   
   solar activity:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3V6jinh   
      
   https://bit.ly/3V0isIY   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,   
   74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,   
   137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a   
   mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,   
   with a mean of 3.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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