TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 281.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27d7dfb7   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/7b42c86a9 Nov  5 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/7b42c86a9 Nov  5 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 14, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this   
   bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday   
   night.   
      
   Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more   
   November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another   
   on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13.   
   But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are   
   the solar flux forecasts.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet   
   somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.   
   Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four   
   days since, the average rose to 137.9.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the   
   middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on   
   November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19,  then 110, 114, 112 and 114   
   on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,   
   then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,   
   130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on   
   December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116   
   on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on   
   December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November   
   15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20,  5 on November 21-22,   
   then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and   
   12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on   
   December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15   
   and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on   
   December 20-22.   
      
   Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:   
      
   "10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319   
   UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me   
   in Spanish."   
      
   That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles   
   from Puerto Rico.   
      
   More on Rodrigues Island:   
      
   https://bbc.in/3El5MGS   
      
   A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ   
      
   Solar flares and radio blackouts:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu   
      
   https://bit.ly/3hkvke8   
      
   Paul, K2PMD, asked:   
      
   "I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb   
   question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes   
   radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included   
   in the weekly propagation report?"   
      
   My response:   
      
   "The reason is, there are too many of them.  Instead, geomagnetic   
   indicators are summarized using the A index.   
      
   "If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and   
   planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.   
      
   "K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.   
      
   "The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.   
      
   "https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW   
      
   "I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to   
   check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:   
      
   "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index   
      
   "Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot   
   trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,   
   but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you   
   get a finer resolution."   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,   
   80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,   
   131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,   
   with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,   
   8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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