TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 275.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27ca6719   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/fb4e4ce96 Oct 25 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/fb4e4ce96 Oct 25 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP44   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 4, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number   
   rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3   
   to 129.9.   
      
   There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I   
   used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle   
   latitude A index.   
      
   At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather   
   Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:   
      
   "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high   
   speed wind stream from November 4-5."   
      
   Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle   
   latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.   
      
   The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next   
   week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,   
   then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,   
   112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,   
   104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,   
   then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November   
   30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December   
   7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5   
   on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November   
   13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,   
   then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,   
   12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on   
   December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on   
   December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the   
   state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy   
   to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).   
      
   "The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the   
   absence of energetically significant phenomena.   
      
   "A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None   
   of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic   
   fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.   
      
   "Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that   
   it changed the way the Sun vibrated.   
      
   "Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond   
   the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was   
   about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.   
      
   "On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics   
   Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,   
   studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding   
   universe.   
      
   "Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal   
   holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric   
   disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like   
   a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on   
   https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ, just days before Halloween!   
      
   "A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,   
   but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.   
      
   "Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a   
   small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on   
   October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed   
   after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind   
   stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.   
      
   "(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See   
   https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV )   
      
   "Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had   
   stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.   
      
   "Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.   
   The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to   
   the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.   
      
   "Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's   
   western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on   
   November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's   
   magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation   
   conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally   
   afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the   
   disturbance could follow."   
      
   Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I   
   worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from   
   Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts   
   and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."   
      
   Solar blasts in the news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v   
      
   A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:   
      
   https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/   
      
   News about radio blackouts!   
      
   https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W   
      
   A smiley Sun:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd   
      
   New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.   
      
   https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I   
      
   Part 3 of her mini-course:   
      
   https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk   
      
   This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work   
   domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers   
   for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for   
   details.   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,   
   97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,   
   129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,   
   with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,   
   6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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