TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 270.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27c147a8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/fb4e4ce96 Oct 25 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/fb4e4ce96 Oct 25 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP43   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 28, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went   
   from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning   
   last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.   
      
   On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot   
   number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.   
   Perhaps this is a promising sign.   
      
   The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See   
   what I mean:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB   
      
   I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:   
      
   "Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.   
      
   "Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and   
   has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as   
   well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."   
      
   So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the   
   bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with   
   the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me   
   the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of   
   the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far   
   off.   
      
   Here is what he sent me:   
      
   A index (Boulder)       7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7   
   A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1   
      
   Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle   
   latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on   
   November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on   
   November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on   
   November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on   
   November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on   
   November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.   
      
   The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160   
   presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current   
   prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic   
   for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL   
   Letter.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on   
   October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15   
   on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on   
   November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November   
   24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30   
   through December 6.   
      
   From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point   
   of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of   
   note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic   
   field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and   
   bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.   
      
   "Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began   
   to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others   
   emerged in the northeast.   
      
   "Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the   
   Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the   
   eastern edge of the solar disk."   
      
   Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:   
      
   "I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10   
   meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on   
   October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14   
   feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for   
   my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."   
      
   10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working   
   stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we   
   have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000   
   miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past   
   sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole   
   produced huge pileups of JA signals.   
      
   My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting   
   more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.   
      
   Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a   
   gamma ray burst.   
      
   Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com and using the archives feature in   
   the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9   
   gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an   
   unusual VLF antenna.   
      
   This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that   
   long to reach us.   
      
   Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3znjztv   
      
   More info on the event:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi   
      
   Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:   
      
   https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU   
      
   Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart   
   phones? You can participate:   
      
   https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data   
      
   Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy   
      
   Some tabloid news on flares:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL   
      
   Something even worse than a Carrington Event?   
      
   https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR   
      
   In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages   
   were wrong.   
      
   The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in   
   ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar   
   flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.   
   The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,   
   46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,   
   105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of   
   10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a   
   mean of 9.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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