TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 267.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27b950c5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/bb233b89b Oct 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/bb233b89b Oct 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP42   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 21, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week   
   (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9   
   to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to   
   119.6.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A   
   index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4   
   to 8.1.   
      
   A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,   
   another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19   
   and one more on October 20.   
      
   I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are   
   my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was   
   offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.   
      
   The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the   
   first week in November.   
      
   Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October   
   23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,   
   160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on   
   November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140   
   on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on   
   November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first   
   week in December.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,   
   15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on   
   October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on   
   November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8   
   on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on   
   November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on   
   November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.   
      
   Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems   
   strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head   
   deeper into the Fall season.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:   
      
   "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,   
   2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were   
   strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.   
      
   "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8   
   around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave   
   whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"   
      
   "Signals were strong.   
      
   "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind   
   the northwestern limb of the solar disk.   
      
   "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,   
   when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor   
   G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.   
      
   "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple   
   sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.   
      
   "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast   
   of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind   
   speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase   
   again.   
      
   "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more   
   frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially   
   from the last days of October onward."   
      
   The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4   
      
   Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:   
      
   "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters   
   more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not   
   heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA   
   which is very active.   
      
   "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.   
      
   "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,   
   and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22   
   stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good   
   signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.   
      
   "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like   
   11pm their local time.   
      
   "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you   
   may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"   
      
   Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity   
   across 10 meters.   
      
   Bob, KB1DK writes:   
      
   "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was   
   mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very   
   accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually   
   happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.   
      
   "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band   
   conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first   
   month of use. I highly recommend the website.   
      
   "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great   
   from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who   
   were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.   
      
   "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends   
   were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600   
   Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for   
   several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to   
   Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact   
   with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were   
   working stations from the west coast."   
      
   The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .   
      
   A new photo of a solar flare:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,   
   84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,   
   115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with   
   a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and   
   3, with a mean of 10.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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