TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 263.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27aedc61   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/de8a5b589 Oct 11 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/de8a5b589 Oct 11 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041   
   ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP41   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41  ARLP041   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 14, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP041   
   ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,   
   with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from   
   149.2 to 155.3.   
      
   A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,   
   when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin   
   ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression   
   is better than predicted.   
      
   October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day   
   Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class   
   magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.   
      
   The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here,   
   https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .   
      
   Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during   
   the first week in November at 160.   
      
   The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October   
   14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on   
   October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155   
   and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135   
   on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on   
   November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,   
   5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then   
   12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through   
   November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,   
   then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November   
   9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on   
   November 18-22.   
      
   With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall   
   season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more   
   beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher   
   total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the   
   lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please   
   those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest   
   shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction   
   ends.   
      
   "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too   
   many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma   
   clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some   
   overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances   
   could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed   
   between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's   
   magnetosphere calm down.   
      
   "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not   
   until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we   
   observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we   
   observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the   
   smaller AR3116.   
      
   "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,   
   and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar   
   disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.   
      
   "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,   
   while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased   
   to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity   
   still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave   
   propagation.   
      
   "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will   
   be replaced by an increase later in October."   
      
   John, W2QL wrote:   
      
   "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526   
   UTC, -18 dB.   
      
   "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay   
   RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:   
      
   "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the   
   southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on   
   6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared   
   to be F2.   
      
   "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were   
   3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,   
   but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts   
   and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast   
   Kansas.   
      
   "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!   
      
   "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on   
   car."   
      
   Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,   
   although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare   
   was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the   
   aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer   
   still before radio waves were observed propagating through the   
   aurora:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3CQEveO   
      
   Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I   
   cannot kill it.   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,   
   114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,   
   159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,   
   with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,   
   7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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