TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 259.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27a6067b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/2ceb6b517 Sep 24 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/2ceb6b517 Sep 24 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP40   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 7, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29   
   through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing   
   toward a probable peak in summer 2025.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and   
   average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.   
      
   Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was   
   just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.   
      
   This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,   
   one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,   
   October 6.   
      
   I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings   
   lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago   
   and with higher sunspot numbers.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,   
   then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130   
   on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on   
   October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on   
   October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155   
   on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130   
   on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130   
   on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,   
   5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,   
   then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22   
   to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8   
   on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.   
      
   On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",   
   AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's   
   eastern horizon.  They predict this could produce two weeks of high   
   solar activity.   
      
   F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following   
   conditions would be calmer.  This assumption was shattered after   
   AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to   
   appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.   
      
   Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind   
   from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight   
   increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and   
   October 2.   
      
   However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which   
   ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,   
   but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active   
   region.  It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific   
   and parts of North America.  Apparently, it blasted a CME into   
   space.   
      
   This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with   
   over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar   
   disk.   
      
   It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into   
   space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of   
   strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.   
      
   As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.   
      
   However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the   
   following days.   
      
   Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region   
   persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament   
   erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.  The plasma clouds   
   are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8   
   October."   
      
   Big filament.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ   
      
   The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.   
      
   https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME   
      
   https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,   
   74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.  10.7 cm flux   
   was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean   
   of 149.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,   
   and 14, with a mean of 12.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,   
   9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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