TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 255.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 279c3436   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/2ceb6b517 Sep 24 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/2ceb6b517 Sep 24 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039   
   ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP39   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39  ARLP039   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 30, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP039   
   ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with   
   average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar   
   flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to   
   138.4.   
      
   So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually   
   expect the numbers to track more closely.   
      
   New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on   
   September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the   
   daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for   
   the previous seven days, which is 105.1.   
      
   Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the   
   planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com   
   blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the   
   Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,   
   https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN .   
      
   The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic   
   warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:   
      
   "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic   
   activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.   
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH   
   SPEED WIND STREAM."   
      
   Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much   
   more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL   
   Letter on Thursday.   
      
   Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on   
   September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,   
   128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,   
   140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on   
   October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,   
   135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November   
   1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30   
   through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October   
   6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October   
   17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,   
   8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots   
   rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12   
   and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November   
   3-10.   
      
   Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an   
   expected major geomagnetic disturbance.   
      
   From OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.   
      
   "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field   
   activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.   
      
   "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe   
   without a computer. I will add more next time.   
      
   "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic   
   activity during the night of September 24-25.   
      
   "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.   
   Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar   
   activity.   
      
   "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:   
   September 30 and especially October 1!   
      
   "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"   
      
   Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!   
   I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking   
   into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.   
      
   Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report   
   from last weekend:   
      
   https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ   
      
   An article on solar research:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3dPm40p   
      
   Newsweek is at it again:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e   
      
   I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal   
   only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East   
   Coast of North America.   
      
   You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.   
   Just go to the pskreporter map page at   
   https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html and select the band you are   
   interested in (they even have 11 meters!).   
      
   Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change   
   "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character   
   grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the   
   "Using" field select FT8.   
      
   Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being   
   received, including signal levels.   
      
   You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country   
   of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find   
   it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I   
   usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in   
   the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.   
      
   But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the   
   country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.   
      
   Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time   
   listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this   
   tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show   
   connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."   
      
   The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.   
   Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station   
   who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort   
   the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station   
   since I last saw that station's signal.   
      
   The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when   
   searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24   
   hours.   
      
   Have fun!   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,   
   96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,   
   146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with   
   a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and   
   3, with a mean of 10.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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