TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 250.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2792f5e5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/ff3826fc0 Sep 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/ff3826fc0 Sep 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038   
   ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP38   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38  ARLP038   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 23, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP038   
   ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot   
   numbers and solar flux.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average   
   daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.   
      
   On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)   
   the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We   
   hope it may signal a trend.   
      
   But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year   
   ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at   
   58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two   
   years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting   
   until Summer 2025.   
      
   Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September   
   15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more   
   on September 21.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,   
   120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October   
   7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116   
   on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,   
   128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and   
   122 on October 26-29.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September   
   24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September   
   29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,   
   8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,   
   20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,   
   30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.   
      
   The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air   
   Force Base.   
      
   Are sunspots really black?  A report can be found here:   
      
   https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black   
      
   Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox was today, Friday,   
   September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres   
   will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good   
   for HF propagation.   
      
   Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic   
   mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.   
      
   "The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an   
   impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden   
   ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected   
   frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.   
      
   "On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from   
   the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,   
   but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088   
   appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new   
   number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.   
      
   "On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the   
   setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an   
   earthward CME.   
      
   "On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the   
   southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105   
   - which doubled in size the next day.   
      
   "On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm   
   might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is   
   expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.   
      
   "On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex   
   AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in   
   the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.   
      
   "Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around   
   September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the   
   Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen.  They remained at   
   average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies   
   in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."   
      
   I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this   
   week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by   
   https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html from stations in Florida.   
      
   At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),   
   KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations   
   anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each   
   other.  Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,   
   along the same arc as the North America stations.   
      
   I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length   
   end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious   
   results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except   
   to a very specific location.   
      
   Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:   
      
   https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather   
      
   On September 22, https://spaceweather.com reported three big   
   sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.   
      
   Here is always a good reference:   
      
   https://solarmonitor.org/   
      
   NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:   
      
   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/   
      
   Solar Dynamics Observatory:   
      
   https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/   
      
   The SOHO site:   
      
   https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/   
      
   Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential   
   threat:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,   
   51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,   
   131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a   
   mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,   
   with a mean of 6.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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