TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 247.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2789d6aa   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/ff3826fc0 Sep 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/ff3826fc0 Sep 16 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP37   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 16, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14,   
   when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and   
   average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.   
      
   Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index   
   declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4   
   to 10.6.   
      
   New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September   
   10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths   
   of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240,   
   the highest value in over a month.   
      
   The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.   
      
   During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and   
   average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than   
   this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.   
      
   The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut Air   
   Force Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,   
   but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less   
   optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's   
   ARRL Letter.   
      
   Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125   
   on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30   
   through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on   
   October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on   
   October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic   
   activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on   
   September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14   
   on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12   
   on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on   
   October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5   
   on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October   
   22-24.   
      
   The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!   
      
   Nice solar video from last month:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm   
      
   Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:   
      
   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion   
      
   Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and   
   overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to   
   grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.   
      
   "Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class   
   flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during   
   the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.   
      
   "Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630   
   UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the   
   speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's   
   magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation   
   conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes.   
   Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through   
   inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.   
      
   "Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a   
   calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is   
   expected after September 20th."   
      
   The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in   
   Frankfort, Kentucky:   
      
   "With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite   
   bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12   
   meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive   
   for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX   
   stations back-to-back on SSB.   
      
   "I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that,   
   stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my   
   log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and   
   Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.   
      
   "Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power   
   with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip   
   across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100   
   watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'   
      
   "Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that   
   often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone   
   ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed   
   182 DX entities on 12 alone.   
      
   "I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a   
   rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.   
      
   "I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were   
   authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild   
   because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming   
   from all directions across North America. It was a blast!   
      
   "I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic   
   antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many   
   signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with   
   modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356   
   UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band   
   later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.   
      
   "Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open   
   too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts   
   at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they   
   didn't know where the band edge was.   
      
   "A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at   
   https://prop.kc2g.com/ . I monitor it constantly. It tells me what   
   bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has   
   other interesting data in the menu."   
      
   Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a   
   section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived   
   from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research   
   Associates, based here in the Seattle area:   
      
   https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html   
      
   Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10   
   meters seems dead.   
      
   Here is more crazy solar news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd   
      
   Here is Newsweek again:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS   
      
   Some solar wind news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i   
      
   Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov,   
   WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122,   
   113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6,   
   126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with   
   a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and   
   10, with a mean of 10.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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   SEEN-BY: 712/848 2454/119 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 240/1120 5832 320/219 229/426