TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 243.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 278119ba   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036   
   ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP36   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36  ARLP036   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 9, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP036   
   ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on   
   September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5,   
   another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on   
   September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the   
   average for the previous seven days.   
      
   But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while   
   average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.   
      
   On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are   
   magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely   
   above the average for the previous seven days.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index   
   rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from   
   9.4 to 17.4.   
      
   September 4 was the most active day, when planetary A index was 64.   
   On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September   
   14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September   
   17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120   
   on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on   
   October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on   
   October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on   
   October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1.  Otherwise,  8 on   
   September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15   
   on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22,   
   then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8   
   on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September   
   30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on   
   October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.   
      
   OK1HH writes:   
      
   "Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the   
   central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk.  Its   
   position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high   
   probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days,   
   since September 4.  Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was   
   related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of   
   a rift in the Earth's magnetic field.  The solar wind flow from the   
   large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4   
   and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.   
      
   At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the   
   Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun.  These were   
   AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the   
   source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.   
      
   On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really   
   long tail above the surface of the Sun.  It was a filament coming   
   out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar   
   atmosphere.  Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool,   
   dark plasma.   
      
   Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet.  The solar disk was dotted   
   by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance   
   of flares was low.   
      
   Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th.   
   Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days.  Shortwave   
   propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance   
   on September 6.  An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of   
   the disturbance on September 4.   
      
   Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14   
   September is expected."   
      
   I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation   
   recently.  Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation   
   test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only   
   stations in Florida were receiving my signal.  It looks very odd on   
   the map.  Florida does have a very large ham population, but this   
   just seems so peculiar.   
      
   Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I   
   noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was.  I   
   paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something,   
   the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading   
   was 246.9.  The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.   
      
   Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's   
   bulletin:  https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg   
      
   Two massive sunspots:  https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI   
      
   Longtime contributor David Moore sent this:  https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL   
      
   Big explosion:  https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC   
      
   Our angry sun:  https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg   
      
   So huge:  https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62,   
   79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8,   
   123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14,   
   with a mean of 24.6.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21,   
   14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 120/340 123/10 131   
   SEEN-BY: 129/331 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 226/17 18 227/114 229/111 112 113 206 317 424 426 428   
   SEEN-BY: 229/470 664 700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 301/1 317/3 320/219   
   SEEN-BY: 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281 412 416 418   
   SEEN-BY: 712/620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0 33 105 195   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/304 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426