TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 238.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27778fa8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035   
   ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP35   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35  ARLP035   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 2, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP035   
   ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at   
   Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux   
   measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on   
   August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at   
   1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.   
      
   The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number   
   for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300   
   UTC number of 133.5 instead.   
      
   I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported,   
   "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both   
   yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux   
   measurements."   
      
   Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with   
   average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar   
   flux from 104.5 to 123.8.   
      
   Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux   
   would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.   
      
   I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they   
   occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily   
   2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar   
   flux data.   
      
   Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:   
      
   https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt   
      
   Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values   
   shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.   
      
   Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of   
   the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot   
   groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on   
   Thursday.   
      
   Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night   
   version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL   
   Letter.   
      
   Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and   
   118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then   
   118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102   
   on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and   
   108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on   
   September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to   
   October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120,   
   124 and 130 on October 5-8.   
      
   Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September   
   2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September   
   11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,   
   5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on   
   September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September   
   30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.   
      
   At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting   
   Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:  "Disturbed   
   conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective   
   direction are expected September 3-5."   
      
   Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:   
      
   "The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30,   
   was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell   
   behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30   
   August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of   
   the so-called present active longitudes.   
      
   "Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun,   
   while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude.   
   CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the   
   coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic   
   activity, but only at first approach.   
      
   "However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity,   
   confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to   
   intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about   
   September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar   
   activity can be expected a few days later."   
      
   I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band   
   using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html. This way I can   
   see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective   
   signal reports.   
      
   On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North   
   America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away.   
   But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through   
   Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.   
      
   XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12   
   meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with   
   a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.   
      
   Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252   
   UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at   
   7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649   
   miles.   
      
   Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting,   
   from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312   
   UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the   
   earlier report.   
      
   At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese   
   stations.   
      
   Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news   
   recently:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3q5XACl   
      
   And Forbes.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G   
      
   Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a   
   RSGB member could inform us.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF   
      
   Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's   
   own Space Weather Woman:   
      
   https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY   
      
   In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only.   
   I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.   
      
   A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy   
      
   EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1   
      
   A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4   
      
   Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt   
      
   Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm   
      
   This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd   
      
   From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3   
      
   Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa   
      
   Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa   
      
   More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN   
      
   Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE   
      
   Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv   
      
   Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy   
      
   The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.   
   Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79,   
   87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6,   
   127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with   
   a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and   
   12, with a mean of 9.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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