TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 234.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 276e35fd   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP34   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 26, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then   
   two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot   
   number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day. Total sunspot area   
   more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.   
      
   Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week,   
   August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8   
   during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from   
   123.7 to 104.5.   
      
   Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and   
   middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in   
   Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.   
      
   As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin   
   reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this   
   week's report.   
      
   The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air   
   Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at   
   130 on September 11 and again on October 8.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the   
   previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115   
   on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on   
   September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then   
   128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September   
   17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and   
   100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28   
   through October 1.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on   
   August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8   
   September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September   
   3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September   
   11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,   
   then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on   
   September 23, then  8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then   
   back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4,   
   an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.   
      
   The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and   
   Sadovsky.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to   
   decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More   
   pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of   
   the solar disk.   
      
   "The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares   
   and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled   
   particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on   
   August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly   
   after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the   
   previous sunspot, AR3078.   
      
   "Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a   
   double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth.   
   Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern   
   hemisphere of the Sun.   
      
   "Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern   
   solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near   
   the central meridian.   
      
   "With the current type of development, predictions of further events   
   are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a   
   quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."   
      
   Here is a news article about a large sunspot:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj   
      
   British tabloid sunspot news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz   
      
   Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy   
      
   A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3csY16x   
      
   A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from   
   American Geophysical Union:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3R95HcW   
      
   From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3AL32AS   
      
   Here is a paper on solar rotations:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux   
      
   I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are   
   possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle."   
   The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from   
   now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56,   
   44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4,   
   101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of   
   12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with   
   a mean of 11.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 120 123 15/0 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 50/109 90/1 105/81 106/201   
   SEEN-BY: 116/17 18 116 120/340 123/0 10 25 130 131 180 200 525 755   
   SEEN-BY: 129/331 135/300 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 203/0 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/18 227/114 229/111 112 113 206   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 424 426 428 470 664 700 240/1120 1200 5832 250/1   
   SEEN-BY: 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 282/1038 299/6 301/1 113 317/3   
   SEEN-BY: 320/119 219 319 322/0 757 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81   
   SEEN-BY: 460/58 467/888 633/280 712/848 1321 2320/0 33 105 195 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/0 12 15 27 50 56 57 119 4500/1 5001/100 5005/49 5020/715   
   SEEN-BY: 5020/1042 4441 5030/49 5058/104 5083/1 444 5090/958   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 5020/1042 301/1 221/6 1 320/219   
   PATH: 229/426