TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 230.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 276575f6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP33   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 19, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast   
   Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.   
      
   "Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the   
   combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several   
   coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days.  There is a   
   chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."   
      
   Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora   
   Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark   
   areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing.  They   
   recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long   
   exposure time.  This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora   
   photos are done this way, and viewing with the naked eye you see a   
   much less dramatic image.   
      
   Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued.   
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week,   
   to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17.  Average   
   daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this   
   week.   
      
   But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak   
   of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC   
   local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August   
   21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on   
   August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through   
   September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108   
   on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to   
   10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on   
   September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on   
   September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on   
   August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August   
   31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6,   
   and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on   
   September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5   
   on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September   
   24 to 26.   
      
   OK1HH writes:   
      
   "A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase   
   very slowly.  Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active   
   sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased.  On   
   August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic   
   disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs.  The   
   solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16.  In the meantime,   
   eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength   
   eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.   
      
   The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field,   
   continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that   
   caused minor shortwave radio blackouts.  The strongest eruption to   
   date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a   
   shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.   
      
   A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a   
   possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and   
   engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two).  The forecast for   
   a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to   
   19.   
      
   Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M   
   for the third consecutive day.  The most recent, an M2 explosion on   
   17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.   
   But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will   
   pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone.  So the   
   disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth   
   directly.   
      
   The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave   
   propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF.  The best   
   day was August 17.  A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF   
   occurred on 18 August.  In the following days, the solar flare   
   activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to   
   decrease.  A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."   
      
   Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in   
   an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":   
      
   https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo   
      
   Even Newsweek is reporting it:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw   
      
   https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg   
      
   And of course, British tabloids:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc   
      
   And NOAA:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3A537Ob   
      
   Violent solar activity:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw   
      
   Strong storm:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3c998kT   
      
   Aurora in Montana:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK   
      
   Radiation storm!   
      
   https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR   
      
   John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta,   
   Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho.   
      
   My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction   
   between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.'   Where do   
   'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?   
      
   The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here   
   two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle   
   minimum than I am now.  The station is the same for the entire   
   period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.   
      
   One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The   
   good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is   
   more active.'   As with so many things, there is no free lunch."   
      
   My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines   
   high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at   
   33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees   
   would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at   
   64.8 degrees would be high.   
      
   I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me   
   that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity,   
   there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the   
   disturbance closer to the poles.   
      
   You might notice better propagation from Atlanta.  I've noticed   
   using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of   
   callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE   
   states and nothing here in the northwest.  Don't know why that is,   
   but gradually the propagation will drift out this way.  So Atlanta   
   being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get   
   it here.  It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern   
   states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest,   
   what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116,   
   104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6.  10.7 cm flux was 114.8,   
   119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with   
   a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and   
   22, with a mean of 10.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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