TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 226.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 275cfb5e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP32   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 12, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.   
      
   Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.   
      
   Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average   
   planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude   
   numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.   
      
   An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at   
   116 on September 2 to 4.  The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday   
   evening was improved from Wednesday.   
      
   A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle   
   progress.  A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average   
   solar flux was just 74.8.  Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9   
   during the past week.   
      
   Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15   
   to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102,   
   100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30,   
   then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to   
   4, 112 on September 5 to 7.  110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on   
   September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to   
   16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16   
   then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on   
   August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August   
   31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to   
   7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on   
   September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.   
      
   OK1HH commented:   
      
   "A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly.   
   And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located   
   (or selected from several locations).  Moreover, lasting five days.   
   All this happened between August 7th and 11th.   
      
   At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7   
   (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement).  STEVE is a recent   
   discovery.  It looks like an aurora, but it's not.   
      
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE   
      
   It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the   
   ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved.  The development   
   continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase   
   on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the   
   following days.  With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose   
   activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches   
   maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August).  They are also called the   
   'Tears of St. Lawrence'.   
      
   Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."   
      
   NASA expects increasing activity:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5   
      
   Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics   
   Observatory:   
      
   https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/   
      
   Yet another cycle prediction method:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3SKm29J   
      
   Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground   
   effects:   
      
   https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87,   
   63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4.  10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2,   
   116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with   
   a mean of 14.4.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15,   
   and 10, with a mean of 12.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 15/0 18/0 50/109 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18   
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   SEEN-BY: 282/1038 299/6 301/1 113 317/3 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 460/58 467/888 633/267 280 281 412 416 418   
   SEEN-BY: 712/620 848 1321 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0 33   
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   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 5020/1042 301/1 221/6 218/840   
   PATH: 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426