TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 222.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 27535e34   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031   
   ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP31   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31  ARLP031   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 5, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP031   
   ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily   
   sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at   
   95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.   
      
   Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous   
   seven days at 52.  Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous   
   seven day average at 108.8.  The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.   
      
   We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with   
   average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008   
   with average solar flux at 95.4.   
      
   To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages   
   against the same numbers from last year.  In the 2021 version of   
   ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from   
   this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from   
   the current average.   
      
   The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and   
   12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what   
   I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons.   
   I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833   
   MHz.   
      
   The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager   
   forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and   
   Strandness on Thursday.   
      
   The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday   
   version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few   
   days.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9,   
   112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14,   
   100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98   
   on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to   
   28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September   
   1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on   
   September 11 and 12.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then   
   5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then   
   22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on   
   August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28   
   and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8   
   on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic   
   field quiet to unsettled.  Shortwave propagation conditions were   
   average to slightly below average.   
      
   An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar   
   prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb.   
      
   But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot.  So   
   big it is changing the way the sun vibrates.  Helioseismic maps   
   reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb!   
   The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."   
      
   Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast   
   on July 29.   
      
   https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc   
      
   Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon   
   subscribers:   
      
   "This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes   
   and solar eye candy.  Although we aren't expecting any strong   
   storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are   
   expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then   
   again sporadically next week).  This might give aurora photographers   
   at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any   
   better than the weak shows we got this past week.   
      
   Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means   
   decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with   
   the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators   
   as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal   
   reception (and transmission)."   
      
   I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next   
   few days on our Sun:   
      
   https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/   
      
   On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white   
   splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe   
   sunspots arriving soon.  The horizon is at -90 degrees.   
      
   Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design   
   life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a   
   very limited view of the sun.   
      
   I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might   
   cost twenty-million dollars.  Or perhaps a brand new advanced   
   design?  Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by   
   space flight could make this happen.   
      
   Newsweek has solar news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB   
      
   Large sunspot emerging:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ   
      
   Ginormous:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A   
      
   Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to   
   k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27,   
   39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6.  10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8,   
   94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of   
   7.7.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a   
   mean of 8.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18 120/340 123/10 131   
   SEEN-BY: 129/331 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 226/17 18 227/114 229/111 112 113 206 317 424 426 428   
   SEEN-BY: 229/470 664 700 266/512 267/800 282/1038 301/1 317/3 320/219   
   SEEN-BY: 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 281 412 416 418   
   SEEN-BY: 712/620 848 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0 33 105 195   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/304 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 633/280 229/426