TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 206.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 272de57c   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/8da601394 Jul  4 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/8da601394 Jul  4 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP27   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 8, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm   
   underway, with possible increase to G-2 class.  They said it was   
   caused by a co-rotating interaction region.  The storm subsided, but   
   then came back early on July 8.   
      
   Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large   
   new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3bYQImG   
      
   Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on   
   the left?  Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin.  Your   
   input would be appreciated.   
      
   When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic   
   activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh   
      
   The left column of K indices start at 0300 UTC and repeat every   
   three hours.  At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is   
   assigned.   
      
   For an even more up to date indicator, I check here:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ   
      
   Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left   
   corner.   
      
   Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6.  But oddly, average daily solar   
   flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.   
      
   Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year   
   ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar   
   flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.   
      
   Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it   
   pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class   
   geomagnetic storm.  In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K   
   index was 4, then 5.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25   
   on July 2.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on   
   July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13   
   and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July   
   20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July   
   26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31,   
   112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8,   
   110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98   
   on August 12 to 15.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and   
   15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July   
   18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to   
   31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,   
   then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.   
      
   The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th   
   Weather Wing.  See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC for an article about their   
   operation.   
      
   F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on   
   June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase   
   of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation   
   conditions.  This was followed by a slight worsening.  Then we   
   observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the   
   sporadic E layer since 6 July.  There was an even greater chance for   
   so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.   
      
   A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on   
   July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm."   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:   
      
   https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4   
      
   Earthsky update:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V   
      
   Thanks to Max White for this:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt   
      
   https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0   
      
   Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57,   
   42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6.  10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98,   
   100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a   
   mean of 9.8.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and   
   5, with a mean of 9.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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