TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 197.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 271b33e2   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/5ab79049b Jun 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/5ab79049b Jun 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP25   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25  ARLP025   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 24, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the   
   daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day   
   to finally reach 80 on June 22.   
      
   One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one   
   more on June 18, and another on June 21.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up   
   substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.   
      
   Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the   
   middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9   
      
   It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com.   
   Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the   
   daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the   
   past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun   
   blanketed with sunspots!   
      
   Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar   
   Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar   
   images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.   
      
   ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?   
      
   The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the   
   USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and   
   110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day   
   is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction   
   for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing   
   geomagnetic instability.   
      
   Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB   
      
   The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at   
   120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105   
   on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July   
   3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138,   
   134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23,   
   100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through   
   August 2.   
      
   The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5   
   on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13,   
   12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10   
   on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to   
   heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last   
   three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall   
   solar activity level were quite reliable.   
      
   "The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and   
   the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.   
      
   "The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF)   
   were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic E layer played the most   
   important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."   
      
   The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY   
      
   A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be   
   found at:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx   
      
   I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories   
   late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a   
   respite from national tragedies?   
      
   The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the   
   emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot   
   number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower   
   compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP   
      
   https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA   
      
   https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI   
      
   https://bit.ly/39R3SBu   
      
   https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ   
      
   https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC   
      
   https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC   
      
   https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O   
      
   https://bit.ly/3OjuY38   
      
   https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO   
      
   https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo   
      
   https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe   
      
   https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5   
      
   https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra (at) arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145,   
   120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7,   
   148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11,   
   with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10,   
   10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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