SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016   
   ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP16   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 21, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP016   
   ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The bulletin is out a day early due to the Good Friday holiday   
   observed tomorrow.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux for the week were both   
   higher - sunspot numbers up over three points to 93.1 - and solar   
   flux up by eight points to 117.2.  Geomagnetic activity was a bit   
   lower, with April 20 the most active day after a coronal hole on the   
   Sun spewed a solar wind at high speed.  The Australian government   
   gave an alert one day prior.  You can subscribe to those emailed   
   warnings at http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning.   
   If you are in Australia, the same service offers an HF radio   
   propagation course. See   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/Products_and_Services/2/2 for details.   
      
   The same Australian service has predicted monthly smoothed sunspot   
   numbers and solar flux at http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6 and it   
   looks like they predict the peak of Cycle 24 exactly two years from   
   now in April 2013.   
      
   Currently there are four sunspot groups visible, and today could see   
   a geo-magnetic disturbance from a slow-moving coronal mass ejection.   
      
   The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 115 for April   
   21-24, 110 for April 25-29 and 115 again on April 30 through May 3.   
   Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 for April 21-22 and 5 on   
   April 23-27.  On April 28-30 the predicted planetary A index is 7,   
   15 and 12.   
      
   The May issue of WorldRadio Online is now available at   
   http://worldradiomagazine.com. Check out the propagation column by   
   K9LA on page 22, which this month concerns an unusual divergence   
   during the recent solar cycle when correlation between solar flux   
   and sunspot numbers seemed to decrease.   
      
   Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina is excited about   
   all the recent solar activity and associated propagation.  Mark   
   says, "I never thought it would happen, but the sunspots are back!"   
      
   Mark notes that 10 meters is open worldwide during the day and 20   
   meters is open all day and night to somewhere in the world.  He   
   sends lists of DX worked from all over, all with simple antennas.   
   Check his blog at http://wd4elg.blogspot.com.   
      
   Richard Kautz, KC2HZW of Pelham, New York is looking forward to a   
   good sporadic-E and F-layer propagation season on 6 meters.  He   
   says, "Really been enjoying the renewed sunspot activity the last   
   two months. This week conditions on 15 meters have been excellent.   
   Friday April 15 I worked HS0ZIN at 1523 with 59+ signals in both   
   directions. Saturday I worked VU2PAI at 1920 again with 59 signals   
   in both directions. Also worked JE1LET at 2330. Listened to KL7LF   
   for a while working a pile-up with a great 59 signal. I modeled many   
   of the contacts I made the last few days on W6ELPROP and while the   
   program predicted many of the contacts were possible, in none of the   
   cases did the predictions show signal strengths anywhere near what I   
   experienced. I am not complaining -- it been about 8 years since I   
   worked into South East Asia on the higher bands and it was a real   
   thrill."   
      
   Oleh Kernytskyy, KD7WPJ of Saint George, Utah has been operating QRP   
   CW from mountain peaks out west.  He writes, "On April 16/17, 2011 I   
   activated Grandeur Peak (SOTA -W7/NU-065) - 2530 m. I was able to   
   make contacts with JE2RMH and 5N7M on 21 MHz with 10 w and simple   
   dipole. I also heard a lot of stations from Brazil on 28 MHz, but   
   they all worked in the contest."   
      
   Jeff, N8II of West Virginia writes on April 16, "The SFI is 129 and   
   the K is 1 today and you could tell it. But first back to Monday the   
   11th when I was lucky enough to be off from work. On 15 meters CW,   
   between 0018 and 0031Z BA1KW, HS0ZBS, and XV2W were logged, great DX   
   for us on the East Coast. Then as early as 1249Z IS0GQX was 599 on   
   12 meters CW. P29NI running a big IOTA EU pile-up was easily worked   
   on 17 meters at 1236Z and JJ0NCC answered a CQ at 1309.   
      
   "Then up on 15 meters YB0NFL was worked on SSB 59 at 1325 (quite   
   early) along with UA0SR, UA9QM, and YB9/DJ7XJ on 15 CW. But the   
   biggest surprise of the day was E21EJC at 1418, HS0ZBS, and 9M2TO on   
   12 meters CW! Then, I was treated to more over the pole DX on 15   
   meters, VU2PAI and V85TL. HS0AC was logged on 17 meters CW at 1525,   
   and found Kob, E21EJC there 10 minutes later. It doesn't get much   
   better than that here unless 10 meters opens polar which is rare.   
   Today the 16th started with 14 Russians from all over Asia answering   
   my CQ from 0033 thru 0115 along with HB9, EA5, BD0AH, and UN7PBW on   
   20M CW.   
      
   "At 1305Z XV2RZ was worked on 17 meters CW and P29VLR was running a   
   large EU pile-up and was about S3-4 here. At 1325, 12 meters was   
   open well to EU at 1325Z with OL2011VP 599 on 12 CW, but despite a   
   good EU opening with lots of Germans logged, the band never opened   
   to the Far East as on Monday. 10 meters started to open to EU at   
   1423Z with 4O3A logged 599+ 15dB, but CQs yielded no answers.  After   
   a run of EU on 12 meters, I returned to 10 meters SSB at 1522Z to   
   find HZ1DG a 57. Then I worked around the Mediterranean area on 10   
   meters logging Is, three IT9s, E71A, and 9H5BZ. Down on 15, the band   
   was open to most of Asia including due north to SE Asia logging   
   RL9AA on CW and on SSB 9M2GET a 59 at 1634Z running a big pile-up, I   
   also logged YC6NE and neighbor YB6MIX at 1702Z. It was quite a   
   morning!"   
      
   Bud Trench, AA3B of Boyertown, Pennsylvania writes that he was on   
   this past weekend and the bands were very nice.  His summary:   
      
   "10M - Very nice opening to SA on both Saturday and Sunday.  Also   
   brief openings to southern and central Europe on both days, with   
   Sunday being the better of the two.   
      
   "15M - opened nicely to Europe early both mornings and stayed open   
   until late afternoon.  Also, a good North - South path.  This was   
   the best band for the weekend.   
      
   "20M - marginal on Saturday to Europe, a little better on Sunday.   
   The best openings were mid to late afternoon.   
      
   "40M - the band opened to Europe around 22z with decent conditions.   
   Signals on the North - South path were fluttery.   
      
   "80M - some loud signals from Europe around 00Z, but conditions   
   weren't impressive."   
      
   There was a problem with some of the web links in some versions of   
   last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP015, specifically the   
   ones that were emailed to subscribers and the copies that appear in   
   the bulletin archive at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. I was using a   
   shortened link that goes through the site http://snipurl.com, and   
   they had some problems which deleted the links we provided. So the   
   first one, ending in "snys" should have gone to   
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP010/2011, the second   
   one, ending in "snz" should have gone to   
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP028/2005, and the   
   next ending in "so8j" should have linked to   
   http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml.   
   Thanks to Dick Grubb, W0QM for catching this.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 14 through 20 were 131, 124, 97, 67, 67,   
   76, and 90, with a mean of 93.1. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 129.4,   
   119.2, 114.4, 111, 110.9, and 117, with a mean of 117.2. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 7, 6, 4, 5, 10, 6, and 16, with a mean of   
   7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 2, 2, 8, 4, and 11,   
   with a mean of 4.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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