TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 188.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2708af5d   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d07ae18a9 Jun 10 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d07ae18a9 Jun 10 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP23   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 10, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on   
   Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were   
   no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week.   
   Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week   
   and 158.8 the week before.   
      
   News about the first spotless day can be found here:   
      
   https://bit.ly/39cOiQk   
      
   I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged,   
   bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on   
   June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on   
   June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July   
   6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.   
      
   Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily   
   solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and   
   123 the next.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on   
   June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5   
   on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14,   
   and 5 on July 15-19.   
      
   Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the   
   official forecast:   
      
   https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle   
      
   According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the   
   highest it's been in eight years.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in   
   the last two weeks.   
      
   "On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.   
      
   "This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the   
   beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours,   
   rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In   
   addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group   
   of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:   
      
   "https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov   
      
   "It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase   
   solar activity again.   
      
   "The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an   
   increase in activity on June 6.   
      
   "The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June   
   6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual   
   improvement can be expected in the coming days."   
      
   W9NY wrote:   
      
   "Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is   
   over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.   
      
   "Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and   
   Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me   
   from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he   
   was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!   
      
   "The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New   
   Zealand."   
      
   Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:   
      
   On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape   
   Vincent, New York.   
      
   On pskreporter.info I saw that my signal was propagating along a   
   very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of   
   stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a   
   32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the   
   second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.   
      
   Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by   
   stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79   
   degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.   
      
   On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91   
   degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at   
   2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC,   
   VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.   
      
   Here is an article about aurora:   
      
   https://bit.ly/398hPdM   
      
   Mostly good info, except the statement about being half way through   
   this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be half way toward the peak.   
      
   Here is a link about the K-index:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc   
      
   Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B   
      
   https://bit.ly/3x9WNna   
      
   Amateur Astro photographer and his image:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NILWYo   
      
   More information here:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a   
      
   Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3zqGu87   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45,   
   23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7,   
   100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of   
   5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a   
   mean of 6.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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