TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 186.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26ffc8b4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022   
   ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP22   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22  ARLP022   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 3, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP022   
   ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a   
   geomagnetic warning.   
      
   "A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of   
   the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the   
   Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."   
      
   All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the   
   last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and   
   average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These   
   are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at   
   this point in solar cycle 25.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on   
   June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to   
   12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18,   
   then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29,   
   98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140   
   on July 4 to 9.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June   
   5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12   
   and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on   
   June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to   
   27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and   
   14 on July 9 and 10.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current   
   25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in   
   1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the   
   beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in   
   fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's   
   predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and   
   observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching   
   such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the   
   conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current   
   speed' and it is not the only condition.   
      
   After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped   
   significantly. No major eruptions were observed.   
      
   The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related   
   to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most   
   predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave   
   propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th,   
   followed by a significant degradation in the following days.   
      
   The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity   
   sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon   
   around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only   
   exceptionally.   
      
   The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next   
   week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits   
   us around mid-June."   
      
   Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not   
   exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.   
      
   https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS   
      
   Interesting.   
      
   https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm   
      
   https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics   
      
   N0JK wrote on May 31:   
      
   "There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for   
   the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10   
   meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I   
   operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made   
   16 contacts.   
      
   I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up   
   helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."   
      
   KA3JAW reports:   
      
   "On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received   
   WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40   
   MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220   
   deg.   
      
   The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide   
   Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700   
   MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.   
      
   WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated   
   by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.   
      
   Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4,   
   FT8, WSPR, and Q65.   
      
   Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300   
   watts ERP.   
      
   This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first   
   time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.   
      
   Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened   
   today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.   
      
   Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.   
      
   1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles,   
   azimuth 220 deg.   
      
   1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles,   
   azimuth 298 deg."   
      
   More on 8 meter experimental stations:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb   
      
   Nice images:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs   
      
   Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca   
   Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.   
      
   Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov,   
   WX6SWW.   
      
   https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA   
      
   Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42,   
   40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6,   
   101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of   
   12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a   
   mean of 11.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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