TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 182.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26f6acdb   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/254176a6b May 14 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021   
   ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP21   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 27, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP021   
   ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily   
   sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during   
   this reporting week, May 19 to 25.   
      
   Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising   
   hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow,   
   steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.   
      
   A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another   
   on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot   
   area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it   
   declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870   
   on May 25.   
      
   AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:   
      
   https://bit.ly/39UwBVA   
      
   There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant   
   disturbances to note.   
      
   Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX   
      
   Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead   
   sunspot group:    
      
   https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd   
      
   The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux   
   dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following   
   reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection   
   for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday   
   prediction.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May   
   30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and   
   6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then   
   160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16   
   to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on   
   June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on   
   June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to   
   31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14,   
   then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then   
   10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.   
      
   "The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to   
   predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be   
   comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar   
   cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity   
   began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and   
   ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed   
   during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.   
      
   In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A   
   total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.   
      
   The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same   
   interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116,   
   while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly   
   increased geomagnetic activity.   
      
   It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern   
   Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable   
   frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The   
   optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With   
   the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they   
   tend to be several MHz higher during the day.   
      
   In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the   
   ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar   
   activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the   
   sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the   
   opening of the shortest shortwave bands."   
      
   Recent flare news:    
      
   https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc   
      
   NN4X wrote:   
      
   "There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia   
   over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:   
      
   EX8MLE 1618 UTC  9V1XX 1619 UTC  DS4FWI 1620 UTC  VU2CPL 1627 UTC   
      
   Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the   
   morning.   
      
   15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.   
      
   The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."   
      
   Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8   
   coverage for his signal.   
      
   From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot   
   regions:    
      
   https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d   
      
   Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday   
   night:   
      
   "Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:   
      
   ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579  Path: 7,827 miles   
      
   Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.   
      
   73, Lou  WD5GLO-EM15AH  Oklahoma"   
      
   On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:   
      
   "Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10   
   meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around   
   1600 to 1800 UTC.   
      
   Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path   
   about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at   
   2500 miles.   
      
   But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a   
   few stations elsewhere.   
      
   The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.   
      
   This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham   
   population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.   
      
   On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles   
   away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge   
   concentration of Florida stations.   
      
   Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and   
   enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"   
      
   Carl replied:   
      
   "Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m   
   around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are   
   in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF.   
   The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough   
   sunspots for shorter distances.   
      
   The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region   
   hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the   
   highest for paths of that length.  Thus your FL and XE paths could   
   be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization   
   to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.   
      
   As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north,   
   which means a lower MUF.   
      
   The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum   
   hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via   
   sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there   
   aren't any ionosondes near those paths.   
      
   If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and   
   one Es hop for Nebraska."   
      
   On May 25th I replied:   
      
   "Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12   
   meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage   
   up the east coast."   
      
   Carl responded:   
      
   "That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East   
   Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was   
   better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day   
   variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.   
      
   It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe   
   in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a   
   way to distinguish between F2 and Es."   
      
   I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting   
   analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:   
      
   "Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc    
      
   You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.   
      
   They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU   
   zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month   
   green intensity linked to intensity of signal."   
      
   Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA   
      
   This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought   
   after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H)   
   because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See   
   https://www.cqwpx.com .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138,   
   132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,   
   165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with   
   a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and   
   7, with a mean of 8.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 10/0 1 15/0 18/0 50/109 90/1 103/705 105/81 106/201   
   SEEN-BY: 116/17 18 116 120/340 123/0 10 25 131 180 200 525 755 129/330   
   SEEN-BY: 129/331 135/300 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/0 1 109   
   SEEN-BY: 218/650 700 830 840 860 870 880 220/90 221/1 6 222/2 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 227/114 229/110 111 112 113 206 317 424 426 428 470   
   SEEN-BY: 229/664 700 240/1120 1200 250/1 266/512 275/1000 282/1038   
   SEEN-BY: 299/6 301/1 113 317/3 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 467/888 633/280 712/848 1321 770/1 2320/0 33   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 195 304 3634/0 12 15 27 50 56 119 4500/1 5001/100   
   SEEN-BY: 5005/49 5020/715 1042 4441 5054/8 5058/104 5064/56 5083/1   
   SEEN-BY: 5083/444 5090/958   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 5020/1042 301/1 221/6 218/840   
   PATH: 218/700 229/426