TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 173.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26e43723   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/d752fc0eb May 10 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/d752fc0eb May 10 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP19   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 13, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP019   
   ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10   
   meters, always surprising and exciting.   
      
   Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by   
   the numbers.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while   
   average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A   
   index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers   
   from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as   
   2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the   
   last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the   
   day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no   
   official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own   
   estimate based on available data.   
      
   Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last   
   week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values   
   are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then   
   118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May   
   28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June   
   8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on   
   June 18-20.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then   
   14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5   
   on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on   
   May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic   
   stability for more than 2 weeks.   
      
   Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S.   
   Air Force.   
      
   OK1HH wrote:   
      
   "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing   
   several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the   
   sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different   
   shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of   
   predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low,   
   which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above   
   the solar surface are mostly closed.   
      
   An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355   
   UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure.   
   Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a   
   shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically   
   from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see   
   Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz   
   were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption.    
      
   Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.   
      
   Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one   
   just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind   
   the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth   
   to intensify again."   
      
   Dellinger effect:   
      
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance   
      
   Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg   
      
   More on this event:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0   
      
   https://bit.ly/3NgULrX   
      
   Mystery of the bright spots:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa   
      
   WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji":   
      
   "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready   
   to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8.   
      
   I gave him a call and we made a QSO.   
      
   He was decoded here in Salinas CA. CM96 for an hour and a half with   
   no takers.   
      
   Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!   
      
   Will go back to my saying: gotta be in the right place at the right   
   time and get lucky!  Heads up!"   
      
   K5JRN wrote:   
      
   "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip   
   opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor   
   mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin   
   TX, to the Miami FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no   
   doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new   
   grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."   
      
   Massive solar flare, almost:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3Maqvij   
      
   Solar cycle progress update from NOAA:   
      
   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression   
      
   Real time geomagnetic updates:   
      
   https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm   
      
   Latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71,   
   62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2,   
   118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.   
   Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of   
   4.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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