TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 168.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26da5ad4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/04cec7e18 Apr 27 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/04cec7e18 Apr 27 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018   
   ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP18   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  May 6, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP018   
   ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   https://www.spaceweather.com reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar   
   flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio   
   blackout over the Middle East and Africa.   
      
   Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk   
      
   A recent flare update:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8   
      
   Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see   
   sunspots every day.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while   
   average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.   
      
   Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with   
   average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle   
   latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.   
      
   Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping   
   below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the   
   predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped   
   dramatically.   
      
   For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at,   
   http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05 .   
      
   Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May   
   9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on   
   May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May   
   25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and   
   100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,   
   then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May   
   9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8   
   on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,   
   15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,   
   and 8 on June 9-11.   
      
   These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of   
   the USAF 557th Weather Wing.   
      
   Recent flare activity in the news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq   
      
   https://bit.ly/38YBfRO   
      
   https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM   
      
   https://bit.ly/3FhULFc   
      
   Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3kLmchd   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere from OK1HH:   
      
   "We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was   
   usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare   
   finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to   
   observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old   
   World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the   
   ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our   
   shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.   
      
   "The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then   
   could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline   
   and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually   
   appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active   
   area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.   
      
   "Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,   
   with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,   
   they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which   
   indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group   
   3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least   
   one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we   
   will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation   
   conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."   
      
   KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:   
      
   "On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received   
   WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the   
   experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.   
   Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.   
      
   "The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide   
   Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700   
   MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.   
      
   "Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite   
   service.   
      
   "WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated   
   by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to   
   operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,   
   SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.   
      
   "Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving   
   about 300 watts of ERP."   
      
   Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,   
   and South Africa.   
      
   Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:   
      
   https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html .   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,   
   36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,   
   123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with   
   a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and   
   6, with a mean of 9.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 15/0 18/0 50/109 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/17 18   
   SEEN-BY: 116/116 120/340 123/0 10 25 131 180 200 755 129/330 331 135/300   
   SEEN-BY: 153/7715 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 840 220/70 90 221/6   
   SEEN-BY: 222/2 226/17 18 30 227/114 229/110 111 206 317 424 426 428   
   SEEN-BY: 229/470 664 700 240/1120 1200 250/1 266/512 267/800 275/1000   
   SEEN-BY: 282/1038 299/6 301/1 113 317/3 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 460/58 467/888 633/267 280 712/620 848 1321   
   SEEN-BY: 770/1 100 340 772/210 220 230 2320/0 33 105 195 304 3634/0   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/12 15 27 50 119 4500/1 5001/100 5005/49 5020/715 1042   
   SEEN-BY: 5020/4441 5054/8 5058/104 5064/56 5083/1 444 5090/958   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 5020/1042 301/1 221/6 218/840   
   PATH: 770/1 712/848 229/426