TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 163.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26d14ed5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/04cec7e18 Apr 27 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/04cec7e18 Apr 27 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017   
   ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP17   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17  ARLP017   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 29, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP017   
   ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 0206 UTC on April 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued   
   a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The Earth is currently under the   
   influence of moderately elevated solar wind speed associated with a   
   southern coronal hole. On late UT day April 29, solar wind   
   conditions are expected to enhance further due to possible arrival   
   of the 27 April CMEs. G0-G1 conditions are likely for next three   
   days with a chance of G2 on April 29 due to both coronal hole   
   effects and impending impact of the CMEs. Aurora may be visible from   
   Tasmania, southern coastline Victoria and southwest Western   
   Australia."   
      
   On Wednesday and Thursday, I am seeing sunspot groups threaded   
   across the Sun from southeast to northwest. Daily sunspot number   
   peaked at 126 on Tuesday, and average daily sunspot number for the   
   week was 109.3, up from 64.4 last week. Daily solar flux peaked at   
   164.4 on Thursday, April 21 and the average for the week was 156, up   
   from 133.9 in the previous week.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 125, 115 and 110 on April 29 through May 1,   
   105 on May 2-4, 102 on May 5-6, then 130 and 128 on May 7-8, 130 on   
   May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May 13-15, 160 on May 16-21, 135   
   on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, 130 on May 28-31, 125   
   on June 1, and 130 on June 2-3.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May   
   1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5 on May 10-12,   
   then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on May 13-16, 5 on May 17-19, then 10 and 8 on   
   May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12 and 8 on May 26-28, then 5 on   
   May 29 through June 1, and 8, 15, 12 and 8 on June 2-5.   
      
   OK1HH says:   
      
   "Last week we witnessed higher solar activity. Large active areas   
   passed through the central meridian and produced medium-sized   
   eruptions (class M) and occasionally large eruptions (class X).   
   While at the end of the period these areas in the northwest were   
   sinking, other and slightly smaller areas in the southeast of the   
   disk emerged.   
      
   "There have been two increases in geomagnetic activity - one was   
   expected on the night of April 20-21, second one, rather unexpected,   
   by afternoon of April 27.  The gradual increase in solar radiation   
   has significantly improved the propagation conditions of decameter   
   waves. Its improvement was supported by the positive storm phase   
   during the afternoon of April 27, when the critical frequencies of   
   the F2 ionospheric layer in mid-latitudes exceeded 10 MHz and MUF on   
   transatlantic routes rose above 30 MHz. The negative storm phase   
   followed on April 28."   
      
   Decameter waves is another term for HF radio, at 3-30 MHz.   
      
   Watching sunspots on the sidewalk in New York City:   
      
   https://evgrieve.com/2022/04/seeing-sun-spots-today.html   
      
   A story on how to watch sunspots (safely, of course) without a   
   telescope:   
      
   https://bit.ly/39qJnuQ   
      
   Bill, KD9KCK wrote:   
      
   "On Wednesday, April 27 around 2100 UTC 10m was having some   
   propagation I have never dreamed of. I was tuning around looking for   
   a spot to call CQ for Parks On The Air and came across EA2K and   
   another station in Spain talking to ZL1ACE in New Zealand. And I was   
   able to hear both sides here near Chicago with just a short 36 inch   
   10m hamstick on the roof of my car with my IC-718. I didn't try to   
   contact the EA stations once they called QRZ though because they   
   were looking for just Pacific Stations at the time."   
      
   Here is a story of a "Tornado of Fire" on the surface of the Sun:   
      
   https://cnet.co/3Krc9Iy   
      
   K4ZOT wrote on Tuesday, April 26:   
      
   "Just wanted to drop you a quick line about today's unusual   
   propagation on 17M to Eastern Europe - Kosovo and Croatia, Central   
   Asia - Kyrgyzstan, Japan, far NT in Canada, SA - Brazil, North   
   Atlantic - Faroe Island, etc. - well really all over the world.   
   This was quite unusual in my book and unexpected. Worked two ATNO -   
   Republic of Kosovo and Faroe Island. I am running a TS-590SG into a   
   mini-beam at only 20 feet with an amp at 300 watts. All contacts   
   were on FT8. It was quite an experience!"   
      
   NN4X reported from Florida on April 26:   
      
   "I experienced some amazing conditions on 10m   
   over-the-north-pole-or-darn close propagation today, all using FT8.   
      
   "9N7AA 1220 UTC (20 degree heading; the others were within a few   
   degrees of 0)   
      
   "YC1KQV 1222 UTC   
   9M2TO 1613 UTC   
   9W2TED 1633 UTC   
   9V1ZV 1714 UTC   
   E20EHQ 1818 UTC   
      
   "There was at least one other 9W2 that I missed, and other YBs which   
   I did not call.   
      
   "Also, in there was BD9BI/0 (Zone 23).  I'd worked him previously,   
   so did not pursue him.   
      
   "I am not sure I've ever seen such an extended period of this kind   
   of propagation on 10m."   
      
   Here is some information on flares and radio blackouts:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3EWuPij   
      
   I (K7RA) noticed plenty of odd propagation this week, possibly due   
   to flare activity. I use FT8 mainly as a tool for observing   
   propagation on various bands, and on Tuesday April 26 at 1652 UTC   
   K7HAM in Arizona answered my CQ on 17 meters. But we did not   
   complete the contact. Pskreporter.info showed broad coverage of my   
   signal, from Southern California to Florida at the south, and South   
   Dakota to Maine at the north. But at 1700 UTC coverage began to   
   fade.   
      
   By 1720 UTC my coverage on the map was all gone, with a couple of   
   odd exceptions.   
      
   WZ7I in Pennsylvania and AF7KR in Arizona were the only stations   
   reporting my signal. Then suddenly NH6V on Hawaii's Big Island   
   reported. That was it, but then I observed F1EYG and DL0PF on my   
   screen.   
      
   After 1721 UTC my coverage began coming back. I stopped calling   
   K7HAM at 1730 UTC, 38 minutes after he responded to my CQ, and by   
   1735 UTC my signal was being received again all over North America.   
      
   On Wednesday, April 27 at 1730 UTC checking for any FT8 signals on   
   10 meters from my grid square (CN87), they were only being received   
   in Florida! Nowhere else, anywhere, and the cluster of Florida   
   stations reporting was quite thick, stretching all over the state.   
   But nowhere else was reporting signals from my area.   
      
   More on radio blackouts:   
      
   https://bit.ly/38z8c7b   
      
   Don't know what they mean by "sunspot activity score of 80," the   
   average of daily sunspot numbers for the past four weeks is 68.2:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3km9AwX   
      
   Here is the latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/kYv8CsSot-U   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 21 through 27, 2022 were 119, 101, 118,   
   112, 94, 126, and 95, with a mean of 109.3. 10.7 cm flux was 164.4,   
   162.5, 159.8, 158.5, 156.6, 148.9, and 141.5, with a mean of 156.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 13, 5, 5, 3, and 21, with   
   a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 12, 5, 4, 3, and   
   16, with a mean of 8.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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