TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 160.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26c964ef   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/dfe589e30 Apr 20 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/dfe589e30 Apr 20 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016   
   ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP16   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 22, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP016   
   ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar flares emerged daily over the last reporting week (April   
   14-20). On April 20 Spaceweather.com reported "Solar Activity is   
   Intensifying," and that over the past 24 hours there were 19 solar   
   flares, including six M-class events, and a powerful X2.2 class   
   flare.   
      
   Daily sunspot numbers averaged 64.4, 30 points higher than last   
   week, and average daily solar flux also rose 30 points from 103.1 to   
   133.9.   
      
   Yesterday, April 21, the huge array of active Earth facing sunspots   
   pushed the daily sunspot number clear up to 119, high above the   
   average for the week of 64.4.   
      
   Even with all the flares and CMEs, geomagnetic indicators were   
   lower, with the average planetary A index going from 16.9 to 14.6,   
   and middle latitude numbers from 12.6 to 10.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux looked moderate, but the outlook improved   
   between April 20 and the following day, with flux values at 160 on   
   April 22-29, 125 on April 30, 130 on May 1-4, 125 on May 5, 130 on   
   May 6-7, 128 on May 8, 130 on May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May   
   13-14, 135 on May 15, 130 on May 16-18, 135 on May 19, 130 on May   
   20-21, 135 on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, and 130 on   
   May 28-31.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 12 on April 22-23, 12 on April   
   23, 8 on April 24-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April   
   29 through May 1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5   
   on May 10-12, then 8, 10 and 12 on May 13-15, 10 on May 16-17, 8 on   
   May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12   
   and 8 on May 26-28.   
      
   This report from OK1HH:   
      
   "A week ago, we knew solar activity would rise, but the reality   
   exceeded expectations. As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic   
   field on April 14th. Its impact sparked a moderately strong G2-class   
   geomagnetic storm, which peaked around 1800 UTC. Apparently due to   
   the further increasing solar radiation, the disturbance was mainly   
   accompanied by an improvement in the ionospheric propagation of   
   decameter waves (10 meters!), which also applied to the following   
   development.   
      
   "Activity prevailed in growing hotspots in the northeast quadrant of   
   the solar disk. In the following days, the activity of the   
   southwestern areas increased, including the X2.2-class flare on   
   April 20th at 0357 UTC, when it came from a far side sunspot. And   
   finally, on April 21st at 0157 UTC a strong M9.6-class solar flare   
   was detected. The source was the sunspot complex AR2993-94, which is   
   almost directly facing Earth, so I expect the intensified solar wind   
   in the coming days to affect the Earth's magnetosphere and   
   ionosphere."   
      
   Solar flares in the news:   
      
   https://www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-easter-solar-flare   
      
   Here is an impressive image:   
      
   https://skyandtelescope.org/online-gallery/sun-erupting/   
      
   Here are more and more solar flares:   
      
   https://www.space.com/solar-x-class-flare-april-2022   
      
   https://www.space.com/sdo-image-april-20-moderate-flare   
      
   Funny thing is, even with all this activity, I am not seeing much of   
   an effect on geomagnetic indicators:   
      
   https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt   
      
   More solar news can be found here:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3jZtEVF   
      
   https://interestingengineering.com/sun-flare-five-years   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 14 through 20, 2022 were 37, 35, 78, 74,   
   79, 68, and 80, with a mean of 64.4. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 110.3,   
   122.4, 134.9, 140.5, 160.1, and 165.5, with a mean of 133.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 38, 21, 8, 11, 8, 7, and 9, with   
   a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 22, 14, 7, 9, 7, 8, and   
   9, with a mean of 10.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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