TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 154.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26bf2a7a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/a7f6b8549 Apr  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/a7f6b8549 Apr  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015   
   ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP15   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15  ARLP015   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 15, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP015   
   ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 2335 UTC on April 14, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued   
   this Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning:    
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH   
   SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 16 to 17 APRIL 2022."   
      
   Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this reporting week (April   
   7 to 13) although solar activity wasn't really down. Instead, we saw   
   solar flares and CMEs every day, causing disruptions to HF radio   
   communication.   
      
   There was a new sunspot appearance on April 7, and another on each   
   day from April 11 to 14. Yet average daily sunspot numbers declined   
   from 94.6 to 34.4, and average daily solar flux from 135.3 to 103.1.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index increased from 14.4 to 15.9, and   
   average middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer   
   in Virginia) went from 10.9 last week to 12.6 this week.     
      
   The latest solar flux prediction from the USAF Space Weather   
   Squadron, via NOAA, shows modest activity for the next month with   
   flux values of 105 and 110 on April 15 and 16, 115 on April 17 to   
   20, 118 on April 21, 110 on April 22 and 23, 115 on April 24, 118 on   
   April 25 to 28, 116 on April 29 through May 6, 112 and 98 on May 7   
   and 8, 95 on May 9 to 11, 98 and 102 on May 12 and 13, 106 on May 14   
   to 18, and 110 on May 19 and 20.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 22, 15, 10, 12 and 10 on April 15 to   
   19, 5 on April 20 to 22, then 15, 10 and 8 on April 23 to 25, 5 on   
   April 26 to 28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April 29 through May 1, 5 on   
   May 2 to 5, then 8, 15 and 12 on May 6 to 8, then 5 on May 9 to 11,   
   then 12 and 8 on May 12 and 13, 5 on May 14 to 16, then 10 on May 17   
   and 18, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on May 19 to 22.   
      
   I've noticed odd 10 meter propagation lately, possibly affected by   
   the heightened geomagnetic activity. On April 14 in the local   
   Seattle morning around 1530 UTC using FT8 and pskreporter.info it   
   seemed that my low power signal was only being heard along a narrow   
   band across the Gulf Coast, from Texas to South Caroline. Later I   
   was only being heard in Florida.   
      
   Then all reports disappeared, then suddenly reports extended to two   
   stations in Columbia and Chile, and by 2000 UTC I was heard by W5SRO   
   in Oklahoma, KX4WB in Tennessee, N4HER in North Carolina, and KB2AHZ   
   in Virginia, plus everything in between, and then as far south as   
   KN5X in Texas across to KD7NFR in Georgia, plus most of Central   
   Florida.   
      
   By 2300 to 0100 UTC, other than local stations and W7MTL, 250 miles   
   away in Oregon, I was only being heard in Mexico, by five stations   
   1700 to 2300 miles away.   
      
   On the same afternoon, Jon Jones, N0JK reported on six meters, "Due   
   to a CME impact, the geomagnetic field went to storm levels the   
   afternoon of April 14.   
      
   6 Meters opened to Ecuador around 1930 UTC. Here in eastern Kansas,   
   HC2DR and HC2FG were loud on 50.313 MHz FT8. They were in about an   
   hour with big pileup. I received a psk flag from HC2FG at 2003 UTC.   
   AA0MZ EM29 worked HC2DR and HC2FG."   
      
   Earlier Jon reported:   
      
   "I copied on 50.313 MHz FT8 April 9:   
      
   CE0YHF/CE3   
   CE3SOC   
   CE2SV   
      
   CE3SOC peaked to '-9 dB.'   
      
   No contacts."   
      
   On April 14, Dick, K7BTW reported to the Western Washington DX Club   
   list:   
      
   "A bit of an opening to SA on 6 FT8 this afternoon. I worked CE2SV   
   (VE7SV) Dale Green down there in Chile.   
      
   I have copied several stations from down in Chile the past few days   
   about 2000 to 2130z."   
      
   Jay, K7TTZ forwarded this piece from Newsweek on solar cycle   
   progress:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3rt7u1X   
      
   OK1HH says:   
      
   "Solar activity has been declining over the last week. We now   
   observe only two active areas in the northeast quadrant of the solar   
   disk.  However, we experienced two coronal mass ejections (CME). The   
   one first originated from the filament eruption on April 11, while   
   the arrival of coronal mass to the surroundings of the Earth with a   
   significant increase in geomagnetic activity is expected during   
   April 14. The second CME on April 13 took place on the far side of   
   the Sun and is heading for the planet Mercury.   
      
   The STEREO A probe observes three other active areas behind the   
   eastern edge of the solar disk. Solar activity is starting to rise.   
   It can be assumed that it will be increased throughout the second   
   half of April. A more significant decline is not expected at the   
   beginning of May either."   
      
   Solar cycle progress and aurora:   
      
   https://bit.ly/37TGSAw   
      
   Flares!   
      
   https://www.space.com/solar-storm-northern-lights-april-2022   
      
   Interesting info on helioseismology   
      
   http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/   
      
   Another wonderful video from WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/QZHnWE_19K0   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 7 through 13, 2022 were 52, 55, 37, 13,   
   24, 23, and 37, with a mean of 34.4. 10.7 cm flux was 111.1, 108.9,   
   107.1, 101.1, 98.7, 96.2, and 98.7, with a mean of 103.1. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 15, 9, 19, 34, 13, 12, and 9, with a mean   
   of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 9, 17, 18, 13, 10, and 9 ,   
   with a mean of 12.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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