TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 149.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26b5a585   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/a7f6b8549 Apr  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/a7f6b8549 Apr  7 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP14   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 8, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past   
   reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number   
   rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.   
      
   It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.   
      
   Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the   
   observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks   
   we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers,   
   instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory   
   led nowhere, but now the data is back online at,   
   https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC .   
      
   I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of   
   239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the   
   10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and   
   afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always   
   from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.   
      
   Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April   
   2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to   
   14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.   
      
   Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March   
   and predicts even more for April. They also report that Solar Cycle   
   25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions.   
      
   A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1,   
   another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on   
   April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April   
   18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30,   
   130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on   
   May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on   
   April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25,   
   5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5   
   on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.   
      
   Solar wind in the news:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3rdXycD   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:   
      
   "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by   
   solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. In particular,   
   on April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME   
   generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small   
   portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.   
      
   "The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2   
   and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on   
   the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation   
   conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in   
   solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.   
      
   "In further development, we first expect a decline in solar   
   activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again   
   cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the   
   development will be slightly irregular."   
      
   Another great video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the   
   Space Weather Woman:   
      
   https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ   
      
   WB8VLC reports from Oregon:   
      
   "Another great week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM   
   activity, but the activity was very strong with signals to South   
   Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island, and Australia.   
      
   "Interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any   
   morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."   
      
   A small portion of his log:   
      
   "April 3 it was ZS in the morning and VK at night then China and   
   Philippines:   
      
   "2344 UTC N7ET/DU7  28.014  CW 599 Philippines   
   2340 UTC  BV1EL     28.010  CW 599 Taiwan   
   2311 UTC  VK3NX     28.015  CW 599 Australia   
   1900 UTC  ZS3Y      28.373  SSB 55 South Africa"   
      
   K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas:   
      
   "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. On 6 meters   
   on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in   
   Ecuador while running 30 watts to an indoor dipole wrapped around a   
   couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end. [I will assume FT8   
   was the mode. - K7RA]   
      
   "That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6).   
   My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Colombia and   
   Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several   
   Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked   
   an LU on 6.   
      
   "Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not   
   heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on   
   6 meters except a few locals and those South American stations. The   
   north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."   
      
   Speaking of "narrow pipelines," I often see this on 10 and 12 meters   
   using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info, on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12   
   meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast   
   over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only   
   by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South   
   Carolina.   
      
   Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but   
   still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports   
   had spread to New York, Georgia and  Florida, and the mileage range   
   expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major   
   exception, HK3A in Bogota, Colombia at 4091 miles.   
      
   The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied   
   only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia,   
   Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage   
   expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida.  All of   
   this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an   
   UnUn and autotuner.   
      
   Thanks to KA7F for the following:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8   
      
   Information on Solar Cycle 25 increasing:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p   
      
   And more from the Southgate Amateur Radio Club:   
      
   https://bit.ly/38BbEOW   
      
   More solar phenomena:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ra65NV   
      
   And more:   
      
   https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/   
      
   N0JK reports:   
      
   "On Saturday April 2, 2022 N0LL (EM09) copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU   
   and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and K0SIX   
   (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022 were 84, 109,   
   118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was   
   149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of   
   135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and   
   8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7,   
   8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 15/0 18/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/116 120/340 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/10 25 131 180 200 755 129/330 331 135/300 138/146 153/7715   
   SEEN-BY: 154/10 30 40 50 700 218/700 220/90 222/2 226/18 30 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 111 206 317 424 426 428 664 700 240/1120 250/1 261/38   
   SEEN-BY: 266/512 275/100 1000 282/1038 299/6 317/3 320/219 322/757   
   SEEN-BY: 342/11 200 396/45 460/58 633/280 640/1321 712/848 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/33 105 195 304 3634/0 12 15 27 50 119 5020/1042   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 153/7715 229/426