TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 133.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2690d23a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/4280408dd Mar  8 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/4280408dd Mar  8 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP10   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 11, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   On March 11 at 0431 UTC Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued   
   this warning:   
      
   "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 march,   
   and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March.   
   Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."   
      
   We observed an active Sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked   
   on Saturday, March 5 when Alaska's high latitude college A index   
   reached 42.   
      
   Again this week, sunspots covered the Sun every day. Average daily   
   sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux   
   went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher.   
   Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11-12, 115 on March 13, 110 on   
   March 14-16, 105 on March 17, 100 on March 18-21, then 101 and 103   
   on March 22-23, 104 on March 24-27, then 110, 115 and 116 on March   
   28-30, 118 on March 31 through April 1, 120 on April 2, 116 on April   
   3-4, then 115 and 112 on April 5-6, 110 on April 7-9, then 108, 102,   
   98 and 99 on April 10-13 then 100 on April 14-17.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11, 5 on March 12-13,   
   then 10, 18, 15, 5 and 8 on March 14-18, then 12 on March 19-20, 15   
   on March 21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5, 10 and 8 on March 25-27, 5 on   
   March 28-29, then 10, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on March 30 through April 3,   
   5 on April 4-6, then 15, 20 and 12 on April 7-9, and 5 on April   
   10-13, then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15-16.   
      
   OK1HH wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength   
   of 10.7 cm, more briefly referred to as 'solar flux,' remains above   
   110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the   
   eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead   
   satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.   
      
   "The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes   
   during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for   
   short-wave ionospheric propagation.   
      
   "Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in   
   geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5-6) cause only a   
   slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected   
   until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."   
      
   Russ Hunt, WQ3X wrote on March 4, "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10m   
   FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just   
   over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, 2 DUs and VR2XYL. I had a   
   pileup 6 deep at times using 250w and 5 element Yagi at 50'. It was   
   probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 yrs. Today I   
   worked two more VR2s and 3 JAs also LP just after sunrise. Love them   
   'spots.'"   
      
   A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get   
   some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and   
   sunset and you will find a lot of DX.   
      
   "I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we   
   get EU, Africa, and the middle east in the mornings. I've done WAC   
   about 4 or 5 times a week, but now running out of new stations to   
   work."   
      
   Robert Strickland, KE2WY asked about a good source for the latest   
   daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site:   
      
   https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt   
      
   On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's DX contest,   
   only a small portion presented here.   
      
   "I operated single band 15M in the ARRL DX contest but made a few   
   QSOs on other bands. 20M was open well to Africa and south in the   
   0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. 10M was   
   open for many hours to the south some booming signals even from LP   
   stations in Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos and many HP stations   
   like J68HZ, St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T, Curacao.   
      
   "On 15M, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some   
   challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.   
      
   "Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely   
   closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less   
   than S9.   
      
   "I made 600 15M QSOs working 86 countries.   
      
   "On 10M CW starting 1414 UTC on March 8 I worked 3 new ones in a   
   row: 7Q6M, Malawi, 5X1NA, Uganda, and JY5HX, Jordan.   
      
   "Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, Israel, on 10 CW V26K, Antigua, and   
   OA1F in Peru.   
      
   "Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE, St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ on   
   South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.   
      
   "On 12m CW on the 9th at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10   
   SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC in   
   Chad, ZS1PPY, South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius. Today, the 10th   
   featured excellent high band propagation with today's solar flux   
   climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking S8 on 15M SSB at 1340   
   UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new), VU2DSI, India,   
   at 1353 UTC.   
      
   "Turning to 10M SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Southern Sahara, and   
   CU1EZ, Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour   
   10M blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and   
   Hungary.   
      
   "Several stations with simple end fed wires were S9 and the loudest   
   signals were S9+20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best   
   openings all Winter, but others were more widespread farther north."   
      
   Here is an email list for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF   
   beacons:   
      
   https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons   
      
   The Vernal Equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday,   
   March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar   
   radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres, good for HF   
   propagation. It is the first day of Spring in the northern   
   hemisphere and Fall in the southern.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84,   
   93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7 cm flux was 110.9, 113.1,   
   120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with   
   a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and   
   4, with a mean of 8.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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